Probabilistic projections for fantasy football

Every player is a distribution.

A single projected number hides the decision. We project the full range of outcomes for every player, every week, and price that range under your league's exact scoring rules — so you can see which calls are close and which only look close. Then we publish how close we came.

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1,000
simulated stat lines per player, per week
50 / 80 / 90%
prediction intervals at three levels — coverage published for each
$19.99
a year — one plan, everything included
One player, one week Illustrative
Floor 8.7 Median 14.2 Ceiling 21.3

Every player gets this — scored under your league's rules, not a generic preset.

What you get

Built for the decision, not the headline number

Your league's exact rules

Full-PPR, TE premium, points per first down, yardage milestones, multi-TD and stacking bonuses — every projection is re-scored under your scoring, including the rules other tools round off.

Ranges, not guesses

Floor and ceiling come from calibrated prediction intervals — and we publish how often those intervals actually contain what happened.

Lineup calls, triaged

Most weeks hold five obvious starts and two real decisions. We flag which is which — and how often the alternative outscores your starter across simulated outcomes.

Waivers priced as upgrades

Free agents ranked by how much they improve your best possible lineup — not by a raw projection that ignores who you already start.

Trades in probabilities

See the chance a trade actually helps your team — this season, or across multi-year windows in keeper and dynasty formats.

Head-to-head, simulated

Your matchup simulated against your specific opponent's roster for an honest win probability — not two point totals compared.

For dynasty, keeper and IDP leagues

Weird league? Good.

Dynasty and keeper, priced in seasons.

Most tools stop at Week 18. Dynasty and keeper decisions don't. For every player we cover you get a range for the rest of this season, for next season, and for the two after it — floor, median and ceiling, plus the chance he plays that season. Dynasty boards cover seven positions, QB, RB, WR and TE and the individual defenders (DL, LB and DB), ranked by whichever horizon you pick and scored under your league's own rules.

We test each of those horizons on past seasons, using only what was known at the time, and publish how often the real result landed inside the range — by position, on the accuracy page. Where a horizon hasn't earned a place, the board says so instead of showing you a number.

Any rules. Actually any.

Standard, half, or full PPR? Of course. TE premium? Naturally. Points per first down? Covered. Yardage milestones, multi-TD bonuses, stacking bonuses? Handled, handled, handled. Six-point passing touchdowns, brutal turnover penalties? Priced. Tackles, assists, sacks, passes defended for your IDP slots? Priced. Missed-kick penalties, by distance bracket? Those too. What part of any were you worried about?

Individual defenders are projected too, under your league's own IDP scoring, and they are on our public accuracy page stat by stat, week by week — misses included.

How it works
01

Connect your league

Sleeper, ESPN, or MyFantasyLeague — or paste your settings from any platform.

02

We re-score every player

Every projection is scored under your rules — bonuses, thresholds, and penalties included.

03

Decide with the odds in view

Start/sit triage, waiver upgrade deltas, trade probabilities, draft values — all from the same projections.

Accuracy, published

Judge the record, not the pitch.

Every projection service says it's accurate. We show it: interval coverage, error by stat, and where we ran hot or cold — measured on real outcomes and published on a public page. When we miss, you'll see that too.

Those misses are also how the projections get better — measured error feeds the next version of our models. Honest accounting is slower than a good pitch, and we think it compounds.

See the accuracy page →

Founding price
$19.99 a year

Founding price: $19.99 a year. Subscribe by May 31, 2027 and that price is locked in for as long as you keep renewing.

  • Weekly projections for every player, as full ranges
  • Your league's scoring engine — including the unusual rules
  • Lineup triage, waivers, trades, draft board, kicker streaming
  • Dynasty and keeper boards, individual defenders included: ranges for the rest of this season and the next three, where the numbers have earned it
  • The same accuracy reporting we publish in public

Get started

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One plan. No tiers, no upsells. Cancel anytime — access runs through your paid term. Cheap on purpose: we'd rather earn five renewals than squeeze one season. Want to try before you buy? The example week's projections (a frozen archive week, not the current one), the public accuracy page and the free League Audit are exactly that — no signup required.

Keep in touch

Make us earn it.

Not sold yet? Fair. Leave an email and we'll write when there's something worth reading — including how the projections actually did, hits and misses both. No fixed schedule, and unsubscribe anytime.

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