Players — 2024 Week 5
Scoring: Full PPR · 6-pt pass TD
QB fantasy football rankings for the rest of the 2024 season, ordered by our projected total (not the “Median” column).
Archived example week — 2024 Week 5.
These are not current projections. Many of these players are still active, so
don't use these numbers to set a lineup. Subscribers get the live week.
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Today's model, trained only on what was known by 2024 Week 5; some calibration settings were measured on later seasons.
Projected fantasy points for the rest of the 2024 season
| # | Player | Team | Median | Floor (P10) | Ceiling (P90) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 302.7 | 196.4 | 409.8 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | SF | 262.0 | 156.7 | 386.3 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 267.0 | 148.3 | 337.2 |
| 4 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 247.8 | 157.4 | 364.8 |
| 5 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 230.5 | 123.1 | 375.8 |
| 6 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 235.8 | 136.4 | 335.6 |
| 7 | Kirk Cousins | ATL | 227.4 | 120.7 | 355.9 |
| 8 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 233.8 | 127.5 | 347.8 |
| 9 | Jared Goff | DET | 237.4 | 136.9 | 322.5 |
| 10 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 226.8 | 124.7 | 344.0 |
| 11 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 226.2 | 89.0 | 359.5 |
| 12 | Jordan Love | GB | 215.4 | 123.9 | 315.2 |
| 13 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 221.7 | 94.8 | 323.5 |
| 14 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 214.4 | 91.9 | 321.1 |
| 15 | Joe Flacco | IND | 209.7 | 101.2 | 311.8 |
| 16 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 208.0 | 83.8 | 327.2 |
| 17 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 198.5 | 98.7 | 310.0 |
| 18 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 213.5 | 54.4 | 318.9 |
| 19 | Geno Smith | SEA | 191.2 | 58.6 | 325.9 |
| 20 | Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | 186.4 | 80.0 | 286.4 |
| 21 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 183.3 | 73.5 | 297.9 |
| 22 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 164.8 | 69.6 | 288.3 |
| 23 | Bo Nix | DEN | 164.4 | 72.1 | 278.7 |
| 24 | Justin Fields | PIT | 154.9 | 51.0 | 279.1 |
| 25 | Bryce Young | CAR | 154.8 | 38.5 | 283.9 |
| 26 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 152.9 | 56.3 | 264.1 |
| 27 | Sam Darnold | MIN | 151.4 | 49.7 | 262.6 |
| 28 | Easton Stick | LAC | 148.2 | 50.6 | 264.6 |
| 29 | Anthony Richardson | IND | 146.6 | 55.0 | 255.2 |
| 30 | Drake Maye | NE | 131.1 | 36.3 | 241.8 |
| 31 | Carson Wentz | KC | 131.5 | 32.0 | 244.6 |
| 32 | Andy Dalton | CAR | 131.3 | 35.5 | 235.9 |
| 33 | Jarrett Stidham | DEN | 122.0 | 32.3 | 254.2 |
| 34 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 117.7 | 38.8 | 234.9 |
| 35 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | 119.4 | 27.6 | 242.4 |
| 36 | Sam Ehlinger | IND | 121.8 | 41.7 | 228.7 |
| 37 | Bailey Zappe | NE | 119.0 | 32.4 | 224.9 |
| 38 | Aidan O'Connell | LV | 123.6 | 23.5 | 214.6 |
| 39 | Jacoby Brissett | NE | 118.2 | 30.3 | 219.8 |
| 40 | Sam Howell | SEA | 110.9 | 9.6 | 246.0 |
| 41 | Tyson Bagent | CHI | 108.8 | 31.9 | 222.9 |
| 42 | Gardner Minshew II | LV | 105.1 | 7.0 | 258.4 |
| 43 | Tommy DeVito | NYG | 112.6 | 32.6 | 204.1 |
| 44 | Joshua Dobbs | SF | 107.7 | 29.0 | 212.6 |
| 45 | Nick Mullens | MIN | 106.7 | 26.0 | 218.3 |
| 46 | Kenny Pickett | PHI | 104.3 | 31.2 | 212.6 |
| 47 | Zach Wilson | DEN | 97.5 | 18.2 | 219.6 |
| 48 | Malik Willis | GB | 99.9 | 19.2 | 214.0 |
| 49 | Tyrod Taylor | NYJ | 94.8 | 15.7 | 207.6 |
| 50 | Tyler Huntley | MIA | 90.2 | 17.7 | 215.7 |
| 51 | Trey Lance | DAL | 86.8 | 15.6 | 211.1 |
| 52 | Jake Haener | NO | 82.5 | 8.4 | 206.6 |
| 53 | Marcus Mariota | PHI | 79.3 | 14.5 | 193.2 |
| 54 | Jameis Winston | CLE | 81.0 | 7.7 | 203.3 |
| 55 | Case Keenum | HOU | 80.3 | 4.2 | 186.0 |
| 56 | Drew Lock | NYG | 79.0 | 11.8 | 189.6 |
| 57 | Mason Rudolph | TEN | 78.8 | 4.5 | 189.7 |
| 58 | Davis Mills | HOU | 69.8 | 5.4 | 196.7 |
| 59 | Mitchell Trubisky | BUF | 73.4 | 9.8 | 185.6 |
| 60 | Sean Clifford | GB | 70.1 | 3.7 | 187.8 |
| 61 | Mac Jones | JAX | 67.0 | -1.2 | 182.9 |
| 62 | Josh Johnson | BAL | 57.8 | -3.1 | 200.6 |
| 63 | Cooper Rush | DAL | 50.2 | -4.0 | 169.1 |
| 64 | Kyle Allen | PIT | 41.4 | -3.1 | 161.2 |
-
1. Josh AllenBUF302.7 median
- Floor (P10)
- 196.4
- Ceiling (P90)
- 409.8
-
2. Brock PurdySF262.0 median
- Floor (P10)
- 156.7
- Ceiling (P90)
- 386.3
-
KC267.0 median
- Floor (P10)
- 148.3
- Ceiling (P90)
- 337.2
-
4. Jalen HurtsPHI247.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- 157.4
- Ceiling (P90)
- 364.8
-
5. C.J. StroudHOU230.5 median
- Floor (P10)
- 123.1
- Ceiling (P90)
- 375.8
-
BAL235.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- 136.4
- Ceiling (P90)
- 335.6
-
7. Kirk CousinsATL227.4 median
- Floor (P10)
- 120.7
- Ceiling (P90)
- 355.9
-
WAS233.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- 127.5
- Ceiling (P90)
- 347.8
-
9. Jared GoffDET237.4 median
- Floor (P10)
- 136.9
- Ceiling (P90)
- 322.5
-
10. Kyler MurrayARI226.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- 124.7
- Ceiling (P90)
- 344.0
-
11. Dak PrescottDAL226.2 median
- Floor (P10)
- 89.0
- Ceiling (P90)
- 359.5
-
12. Jordan LoveGB215.4 median
- Floor (P10)
- 123.9
- Ceiling (P90)
- 315.2
-
13. Trevor LawrenceJAX221.7 median
- Floor (P10)
- 94.8
- Ceiling (P90)
- 323.5
-
14. Joe BurrowCIN214.4 median
- Floor (P10)
- 91.9
- Ceiling (P90)
- 321.1
-
15. Joe FlaccoIND209.7 median
- Floor (P10)
- 101.2
- Ceiling (P90)
- 311.8
-
16. Baker MayfieldTB208.0 median
- Floor (P10)
- 83.8
- Ceiling (P90)
- 327.2
-
17. Justin HerbertLAC198.5 median
- Floor (P10)
- 98.7
- Ceiling (P90)
- 310.0
-
18. Matthew StaffordLAR213.5 median
- Floor (P10)
- 54.4
- Ceiling (P90)
- 318.9
-
19. Geno SmithSEA191.2 median
- Floor (P10)
- 58.6
- Ceiling (P90)
- 325.9
-
20. Aaron RodgersNYJ186.4 median
- Floor (P10)
- 80.0
- Ceiling (P90)
- 286.4
-
PIT183.3 median
- Floor (P10)
- 73.5
- Ceiling (P90)
- 297.9
-
22. Tua TagovailoaMIA164.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- 69.6
- Ceiling (P90)
- 288.3
-
23. Bo NixDEN164.4 median
- Floor (P10)
- 72.1
- Ceiling (P90)
- 278.7
-
24. Justin FieldsPIT154.9 median
- Floor (P10)
- 51.0
- Ceiling (P90)
- 279.1
-
25. Bryce YoungCAR154.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- 38.5
- Ceiling (P90)
- 283.9
-
26. Caleb WilliamsCHI152.9 median
- Floor (P10)
- 56.3
- Ceiling (P90)
- 264.1
-
27. Sam DarnoldMIN151.4 median
- Floor (P10)
- 49.7
- Ceiling (P90)
- 262.6
-
28. Easton StickLAC148.2 median
- Floor (P10)
- 50.6
- Ceiling (P90)
- 264.6
-
IND146.6 median
- Floor (P10)
- 55.0
- Ceiling (P90)
- 255.2
-
30. Drake MayeNE131.1 median
- Floor (P10)
- 36.3
- Ceiling (P90)
- 241.8
-
31. Carson WentzKC131.5 median
- Floor (P10)
- 32.0
- Ceiling (P90)
- 244.6
-
32. Andy DaltonCAR131.3 median
- Floor (P10)
- 35.5
- Ceiling (P90)
- 235.9
-
33. Jarrett StidhamDEN122.0 median
- Floor (P10)
- 32.3
- Ceiling (P90)
- 254.2
-
34. Daniel JonesNYG117.7 median
- Floor (P10)
- 38.8
- Ceiling (P90)
- 234.9
-
35. Deshaun WatsonCLE119.4 median
- Floor (P10)
- 27.6
- Ceiling (P90)
- 242.4
-
36. Sam EhlingerIND121.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- 41.7
- Ceiling (P90)
- 228.7
-
37. Bailey ZappeNE119.0 median
- Floor (P10)
- 32.4
- Ceiling (P90)
- 224.9
-
38. Aidan O'ConnellLV123.6 median
- Floor (P10)
- 23.5
- Ceiling (P90)
- 214.6
-
39. Jacoby BrissettNE118.2 median
- Floor (P10)
- 30.3
- Ceiling (P90)
- 219.8
-
40. Sam HowellSEA110.9 median
- Floor (P10)
- 9.6
- Ceiling (P90)
- 246.0
-
41. Tyson BagentCHI108.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- 31.9
- Ceiling (P90)
- 222.9
-
LV105.1 median
- Floor (P10)
- 7.0
- Ceiling (P90)
- 258.4
-
43. Tommy DeVitoNYG112.6 median
- Floor (P10)
- 32.6
- Ceiling (P90)
- 204.1
-
44. Joshua DobbsSF107.7 median
- Floor (P10)
- 29.0
- Ceiling (P90)
- 212.6
-
45. Nick MullensMIN106.7 median
- Floor (P10)
- 26.0
- Ceiling (P90)
- 218.3
-
46. Kenny PickettPHI104.3 median
- Floor (P10)
- 31.2
- Ceiling (P90)
- 212.6
-
47. Zach WilsonDEN97.5 median
- Floor (P10)
- 18.2
- Ceiling (P90)
- 219.6
-
48. Malik WillisGB99.9 median
- Floor (P10)
- 19.2
- Ceiling (P90)
- 214.0
-
49. Tyrod TaylorNYJ94.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- 15.7
- Ceiling (P90)
- 207.6
-
50. Tyler HuntleyMIA90.2 median
- Floor (P10)
- 17.7
- Ceiling (P90)
- 215.7
-
51. Trey LanceDAL86.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- 15.6
- Ceiling (P90)
- 211.1
-
52. Jake HaenerNO82.5 median
- Floor (P10)
- 8.4
- Ceiling (P90)
- 206.6
-
53. Marcus MariotaPHI79.3 median
- Floor (P10)
- 14.5
- Ceiling (P90)
- 193.2
-
54. Jameis WinstonCLE81.0 median
- Floor (P10)
- 7.7
- Ceiling (P90)
- 203.3
-
55. Case KeenumHOU80.3 median
- Floor (P10)
- 4.2
- Ceiling (P90)
- 186.0
-
56. Drew LockNYG79.0 median
- Floor (P10)
- 11.8
- Ceiling (P90)
- 189.6
-
57. Mason RudolphTEN78.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- 4.5
- Ceiling (P90)
- 189.7
-
58. Davis MillsHOU69.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- 5.4
- Ceiling (P90)
- 196.7
-
BUF73.4 median
- Floor (P10)
- 9.8
- Ceiling (P90)
- 185.6
-
60. Sean CliffordGB70.1 median
- Floor (P10)
- 3.7
- Ceiling (P90)
- 187.8
-
61. Mac JonesJAX67.0 median
- Floor (P10)
- -1.2
- Ceiling (P90)
- 182.9
-
62. Josh JohnsonBAL57.8 median
- Floor (P10)
- -3.1
- Ceiling (P90)
- 200.6
-
63. Cooper RushDAL50.2 median
- Floor (P10)
- -4.0
- Ceiling (P90)
- 169.1
-
64. Kyle AllenPIT41.4 median
- Floor (P10)
- -3.1
- Ceiling (P90)
- 161.2
Ordered by our projected total for the rest of the 2024 season, which is not the “Median” column: a row can rank above one with a larger “Median”.
About these numbers
Some seasons ahead are not ranked for QB here, because what we have for them doesn't hold up; the seasons offered above are the ones we publish.
No combined total is shown for the rest of the 2024 season and the 2025–2026 seasons combined. We tested totals like it, built from our projections, against what non-starting quarterbacks actually scored (284 player-weeks at Weeks 4, 8 and 12). At Week 4 its 90% range held for 84% of them, not close enough to 90% to publish. Starters' totals were tested too (166 player-weeks) and did not pass.
No ranking by the rest of the 2024 season and the 2025 season combined is shown. That combined total is tested for only some players at this position, and a ranking that left the rest out would not be a ranking of the position.
What these columns mean
- Team
- — His club today, from the current roster — not a week's depth chart, because these figures are for the rest of the 2024 season rather than for one game.
- Median
- — The middle of our projected fantasy points for the rest of the 2024 season: half of the simulated outcomes come in above it.
- Floor (P10)
- — The 10th percentile of the same projection: 10% of simulated outcomes come in below it.
- Ceiling (P90)
- — The 90th percentile: only 10% of simulated outcomes come in above it.