Showing 2026 Week 1, a week already played.
Each row is the projection that was on the board when that player's game kicked off, beside what
actually happened. The live week is 2026 Week 7.
Players — 2026 Week 1
Scoring: Full PPR · 6-pt pass TD
QB fantasy football rankings for Week 1, 2026: projected points with calibrated floor and ceiling ranges and boom/bust odds, sortable by any column.
This archived week lists every player we projected that week, whatever his team or status today.
Week 1: 23 of 37 QB with a recorded result finished inside their 80% range (62%).
This season through Week 1: 23 of 37 (62%).
An 80% range is meant to miss about one time in five, so a week near 80% is on target. Every played week is listed, the bad ones too.
Results as recorded on 2026-10-15 (UTC); an NFL stat correction can still move one.
This is a played week, shown for the record. This week's projections are for subscribers.
This is a played week, shown as it stood at each game's kickoff. Rest-of-season and season-ahead rankings are shown for the live week only: this page cannot yet show them as they stood that week, and today's would be a later ranking under this week's label.
| # | Player | Pos | Team | Mean ↓ | Floor | Ceiling | Result | In range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 27.9 | 15.5 | 40.8 | 39.7 | Landed |
| QB2 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 24.5 | 13.6 | 37.6 | 16.3 | Landed |
| QB3 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 23.1 | 10.6 | 37.0 | 34.1 | Landed |
| QB4 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | 22.8 | 11.8 | 34.6 | 20.4 | Landed |
| QB5 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 22.3 | 10.4 | 34.7 | 17.2 | Landed |
| QB6 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 21.7 | 8.8 | 36.0 | 28.1 | Landed |
| QB7 | Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | 21.6 | 9.2 | 34.6 | 0.9 | Missed |
| QB8 |
Lamar Jackson
Out — this number is not discounted for it.
|
QB | BAL | 21.5 | 10.2 | 34.4 | 27.0 | Landed |
| QB9 | Patrick Mahomes II | QB | KC | 21.3 | 9.3 | 33.6 | 26.7 | Landed |
| QB10 | Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 20.9 | 9.9 | 33.0 | 41.3 | Missed |
| QB11 | Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 20.7 | 9.5 | 34.1 | 21.7 | Landed |
| QB12 | Drake Maye | QB | NE | 20.5 | 7.9 | 34.5 | 14.8 | Landed |
| QB13 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 20.4 | 9.0 | 33.2 | 19.4 | Landed |
| QB14 | Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 20.3 | 9.7 | 33.6 | 11.6 | Landed |
| QB15 | Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 20.1 | 8.8 | 33.3 | 8.4 | Missed |
| QB16 | Matthew Stafford | QB | LAR | 19.9 | 6.9 | 35.1 | 5.1 | Missed |
| QB17 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | 19.3 | 8.6 | 30.8 | -2.0 | Missed |
| QB18 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | 19.2 | 7.6 | 32.3 | 14.5 | Landed |
| QB19 | Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 18.8 | 8.2 | 30.6 | 31.2 | Missed |
| QB20 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 18.7 | 7.2 | 31.0 | 20.5 | Landed |
| QB21 | Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | 18.3 | 7.5 | 30.3 | 21.8 | Landed |
| QB22 | Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 18.0 | 7.7 | 30.7 | 38.4 | Missed |
| QB23 | Daniel Jones | QB | IND | 17.9 | 7.6 | 29.1 | 12.0 | Landed |
| QB24 | Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | 17.9 | 5.5 | 32.5 | 0.5 | Missed |
| QB25 | Malik Willis | QB | MIA | 17.4 | 6.4 | 29.3 | 17.7 | Landed |
| QB26 | Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | 16.6 | 6.2 | 28.5 | 17.0 | Landed |
| QB27 | Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | 15.7 | 5.5 | 26.9 | 18.5 | Landed |
| QB28 | Cam Ward | QB | TEN | 15.3 | 5.9 | 26.4 | 13.7 | Landed |
| QB29 | Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | 15.0 | 5.2 | 26.3 | 9.3 | Landed |
| QB30 |
Fernando Mendoza
Listed QB2 · LV — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | LV | 9.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | — | — |
| QB31 |
Tyler Huntley
Listed QB2 · BAL
|
QB | BAL | 7.4 | 0.0 | 16.7 | — | — |
| QB32 |
Carson Beck
Listed QB3 · ARI — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | ARI | 6.7 | 0.0 | 22.9 | — | — |
| QB33 | Athan Kaliakmanis | QB | WAS | 6.5 | -0.1 | 16.7 | — | — |
| QB34 |
Easton Stick
About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | IND | 5.3 | 0.0 | 18.5 | — | — |
| QB35 |
Carson Wentz
Listed QB3 · MIN — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | MIN | 5.3 | 0.0 | 18.6 | -0.1 | Missed |
| QB36 |
Jack Strand
Out — this number is not discounted for it.
|
QB | ATL | 5.0 | 0.0 | 12.4 | — | — |
| QB37 |
Jameis Winston
Listed QB2 · NYG — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | NYG | 4.6 | 0.0 | 16.6 | — | — |
| QB38 |
Justin Fields
Listed QB2 · KC — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | KC | 4.5 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | Landed |
| QB39 |
Ty Simpson
Listed QB3 · LAR — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | LAR | 4.3 | 0.0 | 15.6 | — | — |
| QB40 |
Drew Allar
Listed QB4 · PIT — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | PIT | 4.2 | 0.0 | 15.2 | — | — |
| QB41 |
J.J. McCarthy
Listed QB2 · MIN — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | MIN | 4.2 | 0.0 | 14.7 | — | — |
| QB42 |
Marcus Mariota
Listed QB2 · WAS — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | WAS | 4.1 | 0.0 | 14.9 | — | — |
| QB43 |
Aidan O'Connell
Listed QB3 · LV — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | LV | 3.9 | 0.0 | 14.4 | — | — |
| QB44 | Joey Aguilar | QB | JAX | 3.7 | 0.0 | 10.0 | — | — |
| QB45 |
Anthony Richardson
Listed QB2 · IND — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | IND | 3.7 | 0.0 | 13.8 | — | — |
| QB46 |
Joe Fagnano
Listed QB3 · BAL
|
QB | BAL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 9.6 | — | — |
| QB47 |
Taylen Green
Listed QB3 · CLE — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | CLE | 3.4 | 0.0 | 12.3 | — | — |
| QB48 |
Tyrod Taylor
Listed QB2 · GB — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | GB | 3.4 | 0.0 | 12.2 | — | — |
| QB49 |
Cole Payton
Listed QB4 · PHI — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
|
QB | PHI | 3.3 | 0.0 | 12.6 | — | — |
| QB50 |
Tyson Bagent
Listed QB2 · CHI — Questionable — we expect him to play, so this is not zeroed for missing time, but it is trimmed for his practice status.
|
QB | CHI | 3.3 | -0.9 | 10.4 | — | — |
-
QB1 · QB · BUF27.9 mean
- Floor
- 15.5
- Ceiling
- 40.8
- Result
- 39.7
- In range
- Landed
-
QB2 · QB · LAC24.5 mean
- Floor
- 13.6
- Ceiling
- 37.6
- Result
- 16.3
- In range
- Landed
-
QB3 · QB · JAX23.1 mean
- Floor
- 10.6
- Ceiling
- 37.0
- Result
- 34.1
- In range
- Landed
-
QB4 · QB · DET22.8 mean
- Floor
- 11.8
- Ceiling
- 34.6
- Result
- 20.4
- In range
- Landed
-
QB5 · QB · CIN22.3 mean
- Floor
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 34.7
- Result
- 17.2
- In range
- Landed
-
QB6 · QB · SF21.7 mean
- Floor
- 8.8
- Ceiling
- 36.0
- Result
- 28.1
- In range
- Landed
-
QB7 · QB · MIN21.6 mean
- Floor
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 34.6
- Result
- 0.9
- In range
- Missed
-
QB8 · QB · BAL21.5 mean
- Floor
- 10.2
- Ceiling
- 34.4
- Availability
- Out — this number is not discounted for it.
- Result
- 27.0
- In range
- Landed
-
QB9 · QB · KC21.3 mean
- Floor
- 9.3
- Ceiling
- 33.6
- Result
- 26.7
- In range
- Landed
-
QB10 · QB · CHI20.9 mean
- Floor
- 9.9
- Ceiling
- 33.0
- Result
- 41.3
- In range
- Missed
-
QB11 · QB · WAS20.7 mean
- Floor
- 9.5
- Ceiling
- 34.1
- Result
- 21.7
- In range
- Landed
-
QB12 · QB · NE20.5 mean
- Floor
- 7.9
- Ceiling
- 34.5
- Result
- 14.8
- In range
- Landed
-
QB13 · QB · DAL20.4 mean
- Floor
- 9.0
- Ceiling
- 33.2
- Result
- 19.4
- In range
- Landed
-
QB14 · QB · TB20.3 mean
- Floor
- 9.7
- Ceiling
- 33.6
- Result
- 11.6
- In range
- Landed
-
QB15 · QB · DEN20.1 mean
- Floor
- 8.8
- Ceiling
- 33.3
- Result
- 8.4
- In range
- Missed
-
QB16 · QB · LAR19.9 mean
- Floor
- 6.9
- Ceiling
- 35.1
- Result
- 5.1
- In range
- Missed
-
QB17 · QB · GB19.3 mean
- Floor
- 8.6
- Ceiling
- 30.8
- Result
- -2.0
- In range
- Missed
-
QB18 · QB · PIT19.2 mean
- Floor
- 7.6
- Ceiling
- 32.3
- Result
- 14.5
- In range
- Landed
-
QB19 · QB · NO18.8 mean
- Floor
- 8.2
- Ceiling
- 30.6
- Result
- 31.2
- In range
- Missed
-
QB20 · QB · HOU18.7 mean
- Floor
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 31.0
- Result
- 20.5
- In range
- Landed
-
QB21 · QB · LV18.3 mean
- Floor
- 7.5
- Ceiling
- 30.3
- Result
- 21.8
- In range
- Landed
-
QB22 · QB · CAR18.0 mean
- Floor
- 7.7
- Ceiling
- 30.7
- Result
- 38.4
- In range
- Missed
-
QB23 · QB · IND17.9 mean
- Floor
- 7.6
- Ceiling
- 29.1
- Result
- 12.0
- In range
- Landed
-
QB24 · QB · SEA17.9 mean
- Floor
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 32.5
- Result
- 0.5
- In range
- Missed
-
QB25 · QB · MIA17.4 mean
- Floor
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 29.3
- Result
- 17.7
- In range
- Landed
-
QB26 · QB · CLE16.6 mean
- Floor
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 28.5
- Result
- 17.0
- In range
- Landed
-
QB27 · QB · ARI15.7 mean
- Floor
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 26.9
- Result
- 18.5
- In range
- Landed
-
QB28 · QB · TEN15.3 mean
- Floor
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 26.4
- Result
- 13.7
- In range
- Landed
-
QB29 · QB · NYJ15.0 mean
- Floor
- 5.2
- Ceiling
- 26.3
- Result
- 9.3
- In range
- Landed
-
QB30 · QB · LV9.0 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 31.0
- Availability
- Listed QB2 · LV — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB31 · QB · BAL7.4 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 16.7
- Availability
- Listed QB2 · BAL
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB32 · QB · ARI6.7 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 22.9
- Availability
- Listed QB3 · ARI — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB33 · QB · WAS6.5 mean
- Floor
- -0.1
- Ceiling
- 16.7
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB34 · QB · IND5.3 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 18.5
- Availability
- About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB35 · QB · MIN5.3 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 18.6
- Availability
- Listed QB3 · MIN — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- -0.1
- In range
- Missed
-
QB36 · QB · ATL5.0 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 12.4
- Availability
- Out — this number is not discounted for it.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB37 · QB · NYG4.6 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 16.6
- Availability
- Listed QB2 · NYG — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB38 · QB · KC4.5 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 16.0
- Availability
- Listed QB2 · KC — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- 0.0
- In range
- Landed
-
QB39 · QB · LAR4.3 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 15.6
- Availability
- Listed QB3 · LAR — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB40 · QB · PIT4.2 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 15.2
- Availability
- Listed QB4 · PIT — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB41 · QB · MIN4.2 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 14.7
- Availability
- Listed QB2 · MIN — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB42 · QB · WAS4.1 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 14.9
- Availability
- Listed QB2 · WAS — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB43 · QB · LV3.9 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 14.4
- Availability
- Listed QB3 · LV — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB44 · QB · JAX3.7 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 10.0
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB45 · QB · IND3.7 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 13.8
- Availability
- Listed QB2 · IND — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB46 · QB · BAL3.5 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 9.6
- Availability
- Listed QB3 · BAL
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB47 · QB · CLE3.4 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 12.3
- Availability
- Listed QB3 · CLE — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB48 · QB · GB3.4 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 12.2
- Availability
- Listed QB2 · GB — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB49 · QB · PHI3.3 mean
- Floor
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 12.6
- Availability
- Listed QB4 · PHI — About 40% chance he plays — listed behind the starter on the depth chart. When he plays we project his full workload; the rest of the time, nothing.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
-
QB50 · QB · CHI3.3 mean
- Floor
- -0.9
- Ceiling
- 10.4
- Availability
- Listed QB2 · CHI — Questionable — we expect him to play, so this is not zeroed for missing time, but it is trimmed for his practice status.
- Result
- —
- In range
- —
Rank shown is position rank (mean desc), independent of the sort you pick.
About these numbers
What these columns mean
- Team
- — The club whose published depth chart listed the player in THAT week, read from the slate's own chart rather than from his club today — these boards can be archived weeks. “not listed” where that week's chart does not list him.
- Mean
- — The league-rules-aware fantasy-points mean. It already integrates over playing-time and matchup uncertainty, so it is not a best case.
- Floor
- — The 10th percentile of this player's projected points: 10% of simulated weeks come in below it. It is the lower edge of the calibrated 80% range.
- Ceiling
- — The 90th percentile: only 10% of simulated weeks come in above it. It is the upper edge of the same calibrated 80% range.
- Result
- — the fantasy points he actually scored that week, under the same scoring format as the projection, from his recorded stat line. A dash means no result is recorded for him: he did not play, or his stat line is missing a stat this format scores.
- In range
- — Landed when the result fell inside the printed Floor-to-Ceiling range (the 80% range), Missed when it fell outside. Each row is the projection on the board when his game kicked off, not a later update.