Players
2024 Week 5 · Archive

Players — 2024 Week 5

Scoring: Full PPR · 6-pt pass TD

FLEX fantasy football rankings for the 2025 season, ordered by the expected total (the projection counted against the “Chance he plays” figure).

Archived example week — 2024 Week 5. These are not current projections. Many of these players are still active, so don't use these numbers to set a lineup. Subscribers get the live week. See plans →
QB RB WR TE K DEF LB DB FLEX SUPERFLEX
This week Rest of season 2025 season 2026 season

Today's model, trained only on what was known by 2024 Week 5; some calibration settings were measured on later seasons.

Projected fantasy points for the 2025 season · Directional — lower confidence this far out

# Player Pos Team Median Floor (P10) Ceiling (P90) Chance he plays
1 Breece Hall RB NYJ 236.3 75.1 426.3 98%
2 CeeDee Lamb WR DAL 245.7 146.6 341.5 98%
3 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET 240.5 130.3 344.7 98%
4 Justin Jefferson WR MIN 229.5 128.7 335.7 98%
5 Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET 218.2 70.7 390.9 99%
6 Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN 223.0 123.5 326.2 98%
7 DeVonta Smith WR PHI 217.4 120.5 327.4 98%
8 Cooper Kupp WR LAR 221.5 121.4 319.7 96%
9 De'Von Achane RB MIA 203.2 58.1 369.0 98%
10 Rashee Rice WR KC 206.5 120.4 294.2 98%
11 Chris Olave WR NO 207.0 114.4 301.6 98%
12 Davante Adams WR LV 209.5 114.0 297.5 96%
13 D.K. Metcalf WR SEA 202.6 100.8 307.1 98%
14 D.J. Moore WR CHI 203.0 100.1 294.9 97%
15 Chris Godwin WR TB 204.0 104.9 292.3 97%
16 Garrett Wilson WR NYJ 197.2 98.7 295.4 98%
17 Bijan Robinson RB ATL 179.7 48.3 359.0 99%
18 A.J. Brown WR PHI 193.8 98.4 296.9 98%
19 Christian McCaffrey † RB SF 210.0 60.1 337.2 92%
20 Jaylen Waddle WR MIA 191.4 96.2 280.5 98%
21 Travis Etienne RB JAX 183.6 58.6 341.6 97%
22 Zay Flowers WR BAL 183.0 76.1 288.8 98%
23 Sam LaPorta TE DET 183.6 126.8 244.3 96%
24 George Kittle TE SF 195.2 139.5 253.2 90%
25 Dalton Kincaid TE BUF 177.5 123.0 239.6 97%
26 Puka Nacua WR LAR 179.4 80.1 272.7 99%
27 Tank Dell WR HOU 180.0 66.4 275.6 98%
28 Trey McBride TE ARI 174.6 121.4 239.6 97%
29 Josh Jacobs RB GB 173.1 47.1 322.0 96%
30 Nico Collins WR HOU 170.4 80.9 269.6 98%
31 Brandon Aiyuk WR SF 172.1 72.6 274.8 98%
32 Drake London WR ATL 167.2 79.4 256.7 99%
33 David Njoku TE CLE 169.1 111.1 229.9 97%
34 Michael Pittman Jr. WR IND 166.1 74.2 268.5 98%
35 Dallas Goedert TE PHI 173.6 119.3 232.7 95%
36 Saquon Barkley RB PHI 162.1 49.6 315.7 95%
37 Kyren Williams RB LAR 153.7 38.9 306.9 98%
38 Rachaad White RB TB 155.7 45.2 294.9 97%
39 Kenneth Walker III RB SEA 153.6 37.6 312.6 98%
40 Cole Kmet TE CHI 165.7 106.1 227.5 98%
41 Chuba Hubbard RB CAR 152.7 39.6 305.3 97%
42 Stefon Diggs WR HOU 166.1 64.0 266.8 96%
43 Derrick Henry RB BAL 176.7 54.9 311.6 88%
44 James Cook RB BUF 147.1 43.6 300.4 97%
45 Terry McLaurin WR WAS 158.7 51.6 256.3 97%
46 Isiah Pacheco RB KC 146.9 33.6 290.6 97%
47 Jayden Reed WR GB 152.8 73.4 246.1 98%
48 Najee Harris RB PIT 147.1 36.3 292.4 96%
49 T.J. Hockenson † TE MIN 157.4 81.5 235.6 96%
50 D'Andre Swift RB CHI 144.4 43.7 274.4 97%
51 Devin Singletary RB NYG 146.4 40.6 283.3 95%
52 Deebo Samuel WR SF 151.1 48.5 250.6 97%
53 Calvin Ridley WR TEN 145.3 59.6 237.9 97%
54 Christian Kirk WR JAX 145.3 54.3 237.4 97%
55 Kyle Pitts TE ATL 144.6 88.1 207.2 97%
56 Evan Engram TE JAX 151.9 90.9 203.8 93%
57 Mike Evans WR TB 140.4 49.1 239.4 96%
58 Jerry Jeudy WR CLE 137.3 51.7 227.2 98%
59 Mark Andrews TE BAL 140.7 80.5 201.9 97%
60 George Pickens WR PIT 136.4 33.6 241.7 99%
61 Rashid Shaheed WR NO 139.0 60.1 217.4 98%
62 David Montgomery RB DET 129.8 33.3 269.3 95%
63 Jordan Addison WR MIN 134.4 41.4 225.8 99%
64 Jerome Ford RB CLE 117.8 26.7 252.4 97%
65 Tony Pollard RB TEN 121.7 29.8 255.8 95%
66 Brian Robinson Jr. RB WAS 155.6 51.4 303.2 74%
67 Alvin Kamara RB NO 154.2 50.5 300.0 74%
68 Jakobi Meyers WR LV 126.7 41.1 209.6 97%
69 Jaylen Warren RB PIT 151.3 47.1 298.9 74%
70 Gabriel Davis WR JAX 120.9 30.5 218.8 98%
71 James Conner RB ARI 120.8 26.3 257.9 91%
72 Jake Ferguson TE DAL 118.1 61.4 181.5 98%
73 Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE 141.9 32.7 295.6 74%
74 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA 147.6 65.8 272.3 74%
75 Romeo Doubs WR GB 158.6 77.0 283.8 67%
76 Chig Okonkwo TE TEN 112.0 58.7 179.3 97%
77 Javonte Williams RB DEN 140.2 36.3 286.7 74%
78 Courtland Sutton WR DEN 108.3 21.6 209.4 97%
79 Travis Kelce TE KC 173.3 114.9 235.0 62%
80 Dalton Schultz TE HOU 109.6 50.1 172.1 97%
81 Tyjae Spears RB TEN 125.4 21.7 271.2 74%
82 Tee Higgins WR CIN 151.3 65.6 282.7 63%
83 Josh Downs WR IND 99.6 25.1 182.2 99%
84 Aaron Jones RB MIN 114.8 5.1 269.2 74%
85 Darren Waller † TE NYG 110.6 41.3 181.8 86%
86 Keenan Allen WR CHI 96.2 12.4 186.0 95%
87 Jonathan Taylor RB IND 106.0 0.0 260.1 74%
88 Wan'Dale Robinson WR NYG 121.0 48.1 241.5 70%
89 Tyler Conklin TE NYJ 94.2 37.6 151.9 97%
90 Tyler Allgeier RB ATL 100.4 0.0 246.2 74%
91 Dontayvion Wicks WR GB 112.5 30.1 236.6 72%
92 Elijah Moore WR CLE 118.4 41.7 241.1 67%
93 Cade Otton TE TB 97.6 34.8 212.1 78%
94 Isaiah Likely TE BAL 92.2 29.2 206.7 79%
95 Joshua Palmer WR LAC 115.7 34.4 245.2 65%
96 Jahan Dotson WR PHI 109.0 27.4 234.1 67%
97 Jonnu Smith TE MIA 82.8 25.2 136.4 97%
98 DeMario Douglas WR NE 100.6 29.5 218.8 70%
99 Pat Freiermuth TE PIT 84.0 24.9 202.5 77%
100 Dameon Pierce RB HOU 78.4 25.4 218.0 74%
101 Zach Charbonnet RB SEA 75.3 0.0 221.0 74%
102 Jaleel McLaughlin RB DEN 73.6 0.0 219.3 74%
103 Khalil Shakir WR BUF 96.1 21.4 220.2 67%
104 Tucker Kraft TE GB 71.8 15.1 185.7 80%
105 Quentin Johnston WR LAC 85.0 11.3 209.3 72%
106 Michael Wilson WR ARI 96.4 18.7 221.3 67%
107 Jalin Hyatt WR NYG 78.2 25.3 205.9 73%
108 Roschon Johnson RB CHI 72.1 0.0 217.3 74%
109 Zamir White RB LV 71.7 18.4 211.0 74%
110 Trey Palmer WR TB 86.3 12.4 209.6 71%
111 Luke Musgrave TE GB 70.4 14.9 181.8 80%
112 Tutu Atwell WR LAR 89.3 13.3 213.8 65%
113 Emari Demercado RB ARI 67.4 14.4 207.0 74%
114 Hunter Henry TE NE 82.3 19.5 196.8 68%
115 Xavier Gipson WR NYJ 69.7 17.6 197.3 70%
116 Jonathan Mingo WR CAR 80.9 12.8 199.9 71%
117 Tank Bigsby RB JAX 64.9 11.6 204.2 74%
118 Khalil Herbert RB CHI 62.1 0.0 208.3 74%
119 Michael Mayer TE LV 63.3 7.0 177.1 81%
120 Justice Hill RB BAL 56.7 0.0 202.5 74%
121 K.J. Osborn WR NE 89.3 13.4 213.6 59%
122 Alec Pierce WR IND 79.2 7.8 203.5 68%
123 Christian Watson WR GB 79.6 13.0 204.7 64%
124 Parker Washington WR JAX 61.3 10.1 190.3 75%
125 Jameson Williams WR DET 68.2 8.9 191.3 71%
126 Ty Chandler RB MIN 52.9 0.0 198.7 74%
127 Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI 54.2 0.0 199.8 74%
128 Chase Brown RB CIN 56.0 2.8 195.3 74%
129 Juwan Johnson TE NO 67.8 9.3 182.3 72%
130 Skyy Moore WR KC 64.9 10.9 193.8 69%
131 Marvin Mims WR DEN 63.9 0.9 185.9 75%
132 Darnell Mooney WR ATL 74.4 20.6 202.4 60%
133 Samaje Perine RB KC 48.9 0.0 196.1 74%
134 Kendre Miller † RB NO 72.6 19.7 212.2 59%
135 Tommy Tremble TE CAR 51.6 4.7 166.1 79%
136 Dawson Knox TE BUF 58.4 5.5 178.6 73%
137 Noah Gray TE KC 53.6 1.8 167.3 78%
138 Tre Tucker WR LV 60.3 7.5 184.3 70%
139 Andrei Iosivas WR CIN 56.7 17.1 185.6 66%
140 Jalen Tolbert WR DAL 64.3 9.9 193.3 63%
141 AJ Dillon † RB GB 69.8 0.0 215.6 59%
142 Daniel Bellinger TE NYG 50.1 0.0 156.5 80%
143 Kylen Granson TE IND 51.8 0.2 161.1 76%
144 Rico Dowdle RB DAL 44.8 0.0 189.6 74%
145 Greg Dortch WR ARI 64.0 9.6 192.9 61%
146 Marquise Brown † WR KC 100.6 21.9 225.5 46%
147 Cedric Tillman WR CLE 53.9 4.7 181.6 68%
148 Brevin Jordan TE HOU 43.1 0.0 157.0 80%
149 Calvin Austin III WR PIT 57.1 12.4 185.8 64%
150 Noah Fant TE SEA 54.6 2.5 158.5 75%
151 Jordan Mason RB SF 43.3 0.0 182.9 74%
152 Kalif Raymond WR DET 73.6 21.5 201.3 53%
153 Keaton Mitchell † RB BAL 57.2 0.0 202.9 59%
154 Jake Bobo WR SEA 57.4 11.0 186.3 62%
155 Jeremy Ruckert TE NYJ 46.5 14.5 134.3 80%
156 Rashod Bateman WR BAL 59.8 1.9 181.2 66%
157 Michael Carter † RB ARI 58.6 5.4 197.9 59%
158 Derius Davis WR LAC 42.2 8.7 169.9 69%
159 Will Mallory † TE IND 47.6 15.8 135.2 75%
160 Treylon Burks WR TEN 50.5 2.7 178.2 67%
161 Brandon Johnson † WR DEN 71.7 17.8 200.6 51%
162 Davis Allen TE LAR 41.3 8.4 131.6 80%
163 Colby Parkinson TE LAR 41.1 0.0 154.3 77%
164 John Metchie WR HOU 45.4 1.3 173.0 68%
165 Durham Smythe TE MIA 50.8 0.0 153.6 70%
166 Tyquan Thornton WR NE 41.3 5.1 168.9 69%
167 Dyami Brown WR WAS 40.5 0.3 169.3 66%
168 Malik Heath WR GB 42.1 1.7 171.0 67%
169 Tanner Hudson TE CIN 49.8 0.1 156.2 68%
170 Pierre Strong RB CLE 37.2 0.0 176.4 74%
171 Demarcus Robinson WR LAR 64.6 12.6 193.6 53%
172 Connor Heyward TE PIT 43.8 12.1 130.7 77%
173 Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR DEN 46.1 7.5 175.0 61%
174 Ronnie Bell WR SF 38.0 8.5 166.8 66%
175 Josh Oliver TE MIN 42.2 8.2 131.7 74%
176 Elijah Higgins TE ARI 31.8 0.0 143.3 80%
177 Kayshon Boutte WR NE 30.7 0.7 158.8 75%
178 Drew Sample TE CIN 39.7 8.6 130.4 72%
179 Kyle Juszczyk RB SF 31.9 0.0 171.1 74%
180 Cole Turner † TE WAS 36.4 4.5 124.2 78%
181 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine † WR TEN 71.4 14.9 200.4 44%
182 Jauan Jennings WR SF 45.5 0.2 173.5 59%
183 Sean Tucker RB TB 27.8 0.0 167.2 74%
184 Tyler Higbee † TE LAR 69.4 13.9 181.6 46%
185 Josh Whyle TE TEN 32.8 3.6 123.1 78%
186 Mike Gesicki TE CIN 35.2 0.0 147.6 71%
187 Xavier Hutchinson WR HOU 32.6 4.0 160.3 68%
188 Foster Moreau TE NO 37.1 5.5 126.3 74%
189 KaVontae Turpin WR DAL 37.8 16.0 163.4 57%
190 Drew Ogletree TE IND 32.5 6.1 123.3 76%
191 Adam Trautman TE DEN 29.6 0.0 143.5 73%
192 Trey Sermon RB IND 30.6 7.5 120.6 74%
193 Jalen Brooks WR DAL 35.0 8.5 138.4 68%
194 Ameer Abdullah RB LV 31.7 8.5 121.6 74%
195 Darnell Washington TE PIT 29.4 0.4 116.9 81%
196 Tyler Goodson RB IND 25.1 0.0 164.4 74%
197 Chris Rodriguez † RB WAS 35.6 0.0 174.9 59%
198 Ronnie Rivers RB LAR 30.4 7.3 120.4 74%
199 Deven Thompkins † WR TB 40.5 5.1 169.3 58%
200 Olamide Zaccheaus WR WAS 30.7 0.0 159.6 59%
201 Brenton Strange TE JAX 28.6 1.9 118.8 80%
202 Ty Johnson RB BUF 18.7 0.0 158.0 74%
203 Austin Hooper TE NE 37.8 7.8 123.5 68%
204 Salvon Ahmed † RB MIA 37.0 0.0 176.3 59%
205 Alec Ingold RB MIA 18.3 0.0 157.5 74%
206 Stone Smartt † TE LAC 30.6 2.5 120.3 72%
207 Emanuel Wilson RB GB 29.4 6.3 119.4 74%
208 Greg Dulcich TE DEN 27.5 4.5 101.6 79%
209 John Bates TE WAS 30.1 2.1 116.2 75%
210 Brock Wright TE DET 28.4 2.3 118.1 77%
211 Luke Schoonmaker TE DAL 25.4 3.5 114.4 77%
212 Payne Durham TE TB 26.1 0.0 113.9 80%
213 Scotty Miller WR PIT 31.2 0.0 160.1 59%
214 Kendrick Bourne † WR NE 75.4 5.0 205.1 38%
215 Eric Gray RB NYG 26.5 3.4 116.5 74%
216 Teagan Quitoriano † TE HOU 27.3 4.3 101.4 78%
217 Mack Hollins WR BUF 42.9 19.5 145.7 51%
218 Chris Brooks RB GB 26.3 3.2 116.3 74%
219 Julian Hill TE MIA 23.9 -2.0 111.4 80%
220 Charlie Jones WR CIN 31.8 6.4 134.8 63%
221 Patrick Ricard RB BAL 24.3 1.1 114.2 74%
222 Braxton Berrios WR MIA 30.8 0.4 157.8 55%
223 Jalen Reagor † WR NE 41.3 15.5 144.4 53%
224 Charlie Kolar TE BAL 23.4 0.1 112.9 77%
225 Nate Adkins TE DEN 24.1 2.1 98.2 78%
226 Luke Farrell TE JAX 24.3 0.0 110.4 75%
227 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR BUF 35.5 -1.3 163.3 53%
228 J.K. Dobbins RB LAC 20.2 0.0 110.2 74%
229 Johnny Mundt TE MIN 26.7 0.0 114.5 68%
230 Van Jefferson WR PIT 34.1 10.8 137.0 57%
231 Lucas Krull † TE DEN 22.4 0.0 111.8 70%
232 James Mitchell † TE DET 24.0 2.0 98.1 75%
233 Mo Alie-Cox TE IND 25.7 3.6 115.2 66%
234 Tyler Johnson WR LAR 24.7 3.6 128.3 62%
235 Hunter Luepke RB DAL 20.7 0.0 110.7 74%
236 Jalen Nailor WR MIN 23.8 0.8 126.8 63%
237 Grant Calcaterra TE PHI 18.4 0.0 92.4 77%
238 Zonovan Knight † RB DET 26.9 3.8 116.8 59%
239 Quintin Morris † TE BUF 21.7 3.9 96.1 73%
240 Tim Jones † WR JAX 33.9 9.5 136.9 50%
241 Andrew Beck † RB HOU 22.9 0.0 112.8 59%
242 Chris Moore † WR ARI 55.9 9.8 181.0 30%
243 Pharaoh Brown TE SEA 21.2 -1.7 108.4 67%
244 Michael Burton RB DEN 12.8 0.0 102.7 74%
245 Josiah Deguara TE JAX 15.8 0.0 89.4 73%
246 Craig Reynolds † RB DET 20.0 0.0 109.9 59%
247 Simi Fehoko WR LAC 19.0 2.0 122.3 60%
248 Austin Trammell † WR LAR 21.7 0.6 124.7 50%
249 D'Wayne Eskridge WR MIA 14.2 0.1 116.7 58%
250 Adam Prentice RB NO 10.5 -1.7 100.4 74%
251 Jack Stoll TE PHI 13.0 0.0 86.9 75%
252 Ko Kieft † TE TB 12.2 2.4 86.1 69%
253 Travis Homer RB CHI 8.9 0.0 98.8 74%
254 DeeJay Dallas † RB ARI 16.3 -0.1 106.2 59%
255 Devin Duvernay WR JAX 14.0 0.8 116.3 60%
256 Velus Jones Jr. RB CHI 8.5 0.0 98.4 74%
257 Tylan Wallace † WR BAL 20.3 0.3 123.3 55%
258 Ben Skowronek † WR PIT 28.6 4.0 131.8 46%
259 Odell Beckham Jr. † WR BAL 59.5 0.1 182.3 28%
260 Charlie Woerner TE ATL 8.4 0.0 82.0 75%
261 Britain Covey WR PHI 12.3 0.0 114.5 58%
262 Trent Sherfield WR MIN 12.2 0.0 114.4 56%
263 Dare Ogunbowale RB HOU 2.3 0.0 92.2 74%
264 Ian Thomas † TE CAR 12.1 0.0 84.7 61%
265 Robert Tonyan † TE MIN 16.9 0.0 89.5 52%
266 David Moore WR CAR 11.8 -0.1 114.0 54%
267 Kene Nwangwu † RB MIN 5.2 0.0 95.1 59%
268 Reggie Gilliam † RB BUF 2.9 -0.1 92.8 59%
269 KhaDarel Hodge † WR ATL 28.7 5.9 131.5 32%
270 Sterling Shepard WR TB 9.3 -1.3 110.5 50%
271 D.J. Montgomery † WR IND 14.2 0.0 116.8 43%
272 Mike Strachan † WR CAR 12.6 0.0 114.8 46%
273 Jonathan Ward † RB TEN 3.6 0.0 93.5 59%
274 Chris Manhertz † TE NYG 13.3 0.0 87.2 43%
275 Nick Vannett TE TEN 2.3 0.0 72.4 64%
276 Eric Saubert TE SF 2.7 0.0 73.2 67%
277 Irvin Charles † WR NYJ 5.3 0.0 106.1 45%
278 Gunner Olszewski † WR NYG 2.6 -1.8 102.6 43%
279 Laquon Treadwell † WR BAL 3.9 0.0 104.3 37%
  • 1. Breece Hall
    RB · NYJ
    236.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    75.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    426.3
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 2. CeeDee Lamb
    WR · DAL
    245.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    146.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    341.5
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 3. Amon-Ra St. Brown
    WR · DET
    240.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    130.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    344.7
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 4. Justin Jefferson
    WR · MIN
    229.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    128.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    335.7
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 5. Jahmyr Gibbs
    RB · DET
    218.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    70.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    390.9
    Chance he plays
    99%
  • 6. Ja'Marr Chase
    WR · CIN
    223.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    123.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    326.2
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 7. DeVonta Smith
    WR · PHI
    217.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    120.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    327.4
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 8. Cooper Kupp
    WR · LAR
    221.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    121.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    319.7
    Chance he plays
    96%
  • 9. De'Von Achane
    RB · MIA
    203.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    58.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    369.0
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 10. Rashee Rice
    WR · KC
    206.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    120.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    294.2
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 11. Chris Olave
    WR · NO
    207.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    114.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    301.6
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 12. Davante Adams
    WR · LV
    209.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    114.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    297.5
    Chance he plays
    96%
  • 13. D.K. Metcalf
    WR · SEA
    202.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    100.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    307.1
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 14. D.J. Moore
    WR · CHI
    203.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    100.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    294.9
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 15. Chris Godwin
    WR · TB
    204.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    104.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    292.3
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 16. Garrett Wilson
    WR · NYJ
    197.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    98.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    295.4
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 17. Bijan Robinson
    RB · ATL
    179.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    48.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    359.0
    Chance he plays
    99%
  • 18. A.J. Brown
    WR · PHI
    193.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    98.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    296.9
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 19. Christian McCaffrey †
    RB · SF
    210.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    60.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    337.2
    Chance he plays
    92%
  • 20. Jaylen Waddle
    WR · MIA
    191.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    96.2
    Ceiling (P90)
    280.5
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 21. Travis Etienne
    RB · JAX
    183.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    58.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    341.6
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 22. Zay Flowers
    WR · BAL
    183.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    76.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    288.8
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 23. Sam LaPorta
    TE · DET
    183.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    126.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    244.3
    Chance he plays
    96%
  • 24. George Kittle
    TE · SF
    195.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    139.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    253.2
    Chance he plays
    90%
  • 25. Dalton Kincaid
    TE · BUF
    177.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    123.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    239.6
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 26. Puka Nacua
    WR · LAR
    179.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    80.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    272.7
    Chance he plays
    99%
  • 27. Tank Dell
    WR · HOU
    180.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    66.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    275.6
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 28. Trey McBride
    TE · ARI
    174.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    121.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    239.6
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 29. Josh Jacobs
    RB · GB
    173.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    47.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    322.0
    Chance he plays
    96%
  • 30. Nico Collins
    WR · HOU
    170.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    80.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    269.6
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 31. Brandon Aiyuk
    WR · SF
    172.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    72.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    274.8
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 32. Drake London
    WR · ATL
    167.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    79.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    256.7
    Chance he plays
    99%
  • 33. David Njoku
    TE · CLE
    169.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    111.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    229.9
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 34. Michael Pittman Jr.
    WR · IND
    166.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    74.2
    Ceiling (P90)
    268.5
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 35. Dallas Goedert
    TE · PHI
    173.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    119.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    232.7
    Chance he plays
    95%
  • 36. Saquon Barkley
    RB · PHI
    162.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    49.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    315.7
    Chance he plays
    95%
  • 37. Kyren Williams
    RB · LAR
    153.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    38.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    306.9
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 38. Rachaad White
    RB · TB
    155.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    45.2
    Ceiling (P90)
    294.9
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 39. Kenneth Walker III
    RB · SEA
    153.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    37.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    312.6
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 40. Cole Kmet
    TE · CHI
    165.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    106.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    227.5
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 41. Chuba Hubbard
    RB · CAR
    152.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    39.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    305.3
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 42. Stefon Diggs
    WR · HOU
    166.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    64.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    266.8
    Chance he plays
    96%
  • 43. Derrick Henry
    RB · BAL
    176.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    54.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    311.6
    Chance he plays
    88%
  • 44. James Cook
    RB · BUF
    147.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    43.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    300.4
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 45. Terry McLaurin
    WR · WAS
    158.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    51.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    256.3
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 46. Isiah Pacheco
    RB · KC
    146.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    33.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    290.6
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 47. Jayden Reed
    WR · GB
    152.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    73.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    246.1
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 48. Najee Harris
    RB · PIT
    147.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    36.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    292.4
    Chance he plays
    96%
  • 49. T.J. Hockenson †
    TE · MIN
    157.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    81.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    235.6
    Chance he plays
    96%
  • 50. D'Andre Swift
    RB · CHI
    144.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    43.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    274.4
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 51. Devin Singletary
    RB · NYG
    146.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    40.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    283.3
    Chance he plays
    95%
  • 52. Deebo Samuel
    WR · SF
    151.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    48.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    250.6
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 53. Calvin Ridley
    WR · TEN
    145.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    59.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    237.9
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 54. Christian Kirk
    WR · JAX
    145.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    54.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    237.4
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 55. Kyle Pitts
    TE · ATL
    144.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    88.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    207.2
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 56. Evan Engram
    TE · JAX
    151.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    90.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    203.8
    Chance he plays
    93%
  • 57. Mike Evans
    WR · TB
    140.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    49.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    239.4
    Chance he plays
    96%
  • 58. Jerry Jeudy
    WR · CLE
    137.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    51.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    227.2
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 59. Mark Andrews
    TE · BAL
    140.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    80.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    201.9
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 60. George Pickens
    WR · PIT
    136.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    33.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    241.7
    Chance he plays
    99%
  • 61. Rashid Shaheed
    WR · NO
    139.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    60.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    217.4
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 62. David Montgomery
    RB · DET
    129.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    33.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    269.3
    Chance he plays
    95%
  • 63. Jordan Addison
    WR · MIN
    134.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    41.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    225.8
    Chance he plays
    99%
  • 64. Jerome Ford
    RB · CLE
    117.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    26.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    252.4
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 65. Tony Pollard
    RB · TEN
    121.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    29.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    255.8
    Chance he plays
    95%
  • 66. Brian Robinson Jr.
    RB · WAS
    155.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    51.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    303.2
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 67. Alvin Kamara
    RB · NO
    154.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    50.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    300.0
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 68. Jakobi Meyers
    WR · LV
    126.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    41.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    209.6
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 69. Jaylen Warren
    RB · PIT
    151.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    47.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    298.9
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 70. Gabriel Davis
    WR · JAX
    120.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    30.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    218.8
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 71. James Conner
    RB · ARI
    120.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    26.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    257.9
    Chance he plays
    91%
  • 72. Jake Ferguson
    TE · DAL
    118.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    61.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    181.5
    Chance he plays
    98%
  • 73. Rhamondre Stevenson
    RB · NE
    141.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    32.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    295.6
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 74. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
    WR · SEA
    147.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    65.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    272.3
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 75. Romeo Doubs
    WR · GB
    158.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    77.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    283.8
    Chance he plays
    67%
  • 76. Chig Okonkwo
    TE · TEN
    112.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    58.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    179.3
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 77. Javonte Williams
    RB · DEN
    140.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    36.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    286.7
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 78. Courtland Sutton
    WR · DEN
    108.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    21.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    209.4
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 79. Travis Kelce
    TE · KC
    173.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    114.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    235.0
    Chance he plays
    62%
  • 80. Dalton Schultz
    TE · HOU
    109.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    50.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    172.1
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 81. Tyjae Spears
    RB · TEN
    125.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    21.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    271.2
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 82. Tee Higgins
    WR · CIN
    151.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    65.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    282.7
    Chance he plays
    63%
  • 83. Josh Downs
    WR · IND
    99.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    25.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    182.2
    Chance he plays
    99%
  • 84. Aaron Jones
    RB · MIN
    114.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    5.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    269.2
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 85. Darren Waller †
    TE · NYG
    110.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    41.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    181.8
    Chance he plays
    86%
  • 86. Keenan Allen
    WR · CHI
    96.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    12.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    186.0
    Chance he plays
    95%
  • 87. Jonathan Taylor
    RB · IND
    106.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    260.1
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 88. Wan'Dale Robinson
    WR · NYG
    121.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    48.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    241.5
    Chance he plays
    70%
  • 89. Tyler Conklin
    TE · NYJ
    94.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    37.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    151.9
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 90. Tyler Allgeier
    RB · ATL
    100.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    246.2
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 91. Dontayvion Wicks
    WR · GB
    112.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    30.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    236.6
    Chance he plays
    72%
  • 92. Elijah Moore
    WR · CLE
    118.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    41.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    241.1
    Chance he plays
    67%
  • 93. Cade Otton
    TE · TB
    97.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    34.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    212.1
    Chance he plays
    78%
  • 94. Isaiah Likely
    TE · BAL
    92.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    29.2
    Ceiling (P90)
    206.7
    Chance he plays
    79%
  • 95. Joshua Palmer
    WR · LAC
    115.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    34.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    245.2
    Chance he plays
    65%
  • 96. Jahan Dotson
    WR · PHI
    109.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    27.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    234.1
    Chance he plays
    67%
  • 97. Jonnu Smith
    TE · MIA
    82.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    25.2
    Ceiling (P90)
    136.4
    Chance he plays
    97%
  • 98. DeMario Douglas
    WR · NE
    100.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    29.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    218.8
    Chance he plays
    70%
  • 99. Pat Freiermuth
    TE · PIT
    84.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    24.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    202.5
    Chance he plays
    77%
  • 100. Dameon Pierce
    RB · HOU
    78.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    25.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    218.0
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 101. Zach Charbonnet
    RB · SEA
    75.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    221.0
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 102. Jaleel McLaughlin
    RB · DEN
    73.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    219.3
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 103. Khalil Shakir
    WR · BUF
    96.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    21.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    220.2
    Chance he plays
    67%
  • 104. Tucker Kraft
    TE · GB
    71.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    15.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    185.7
    Chance he plays
    80%
  • 105. Quentin Johnston
    WR · LAC
    85.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    11.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    209.3
    Chance he plays
    72%
  • 106. Michael Wilson
    WR · ARI
    96.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    18.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    221.3
    Chance he plays
    67%
  • 107. Jalin Hyatt
    WR · NYG
    78.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    25.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    205.9
    Chance he plays
    73%
  • 108. Roschon Johnson
    RB · CHI
    72.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    217.3
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 109. Zamir White
    RB · LV
    71.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    18.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    211.0
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 110. Trey Palmer
    WR · TB
    86.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    12.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    209.6
    Chance he plays
    71%
  • 111. Luke Musgrave
    TE · GB
    70.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    14.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    181.8
    Chance he plays
    80%
  • 112. Tutu Atwell
    WR · LAR
    89.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    13.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    213.8
    Chance he plays
    65%
  • 113. Emari Demercado
    RB · ARI
    67.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    14.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    207.0
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 114. Hunter Henry
    TE · NE
    82.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    19.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    196.8
    Chance he plays
    68%
  • 115. Xavier Gipson
    WR · NYJ
    69.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    17.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    197.3
    Chance he plays
    70%
  • 116. Jonathan Mingo
    WR · CAR
    80.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    12.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    199.9
    Chance he plays
    71%
  • 117. Tank Bigsby
    RB · JAX
    64.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    11.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    204.2
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 118. Khalil Herbert
    RB · CHI
    62.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    208.3
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 119. Michael Mayer
    TE · LV
    63.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    7.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    177.1
    Chance he plays
    81%
  • 120. Justice Hill
    RB · BAL
    56.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    202.5
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 121. K.J. Osborn
    WR · NE
    89.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    13.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    213.6
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 122. Alec Pierce
    WR · IND
    79.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    7.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    203.5
    Chance he plays
    68%
  • 123. Christian Watson
    WR · GB
    79.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    13.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    204.7
    Chance he plays
    64%
  • 124. Parker Washington
    WR · JAX
    61.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    10.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    190.3
    Chance he plays
    75%
  • 125. Jameson Williams
    WR · DET
    68.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    8.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    191.3
    Chance he plays
    71%
  • 126. Ty Chandler
    RB · MIN
    52.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    198.7
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 127. Kenneth Gainwell
    RB · PHI
    54.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    199.8
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 128. Chase Brown
    RB · CIN
    56.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    2.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    195.3
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 129. Juwan Johnson
    TE · NO
    67.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    9.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    182.3
    Chance he plays
    72%
  • 130. Skyy Moore
    WR · KC
    64.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    10.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    193.8
    Chance he plays
    69%
  • 131. Marvin Mims
    WR · DEN
    63.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    185.9
    Chance he plays
    75%
  • 132. Darnell Mooney
    WR · ATL
    74.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    20.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    202.4
    Chance he plays
    60%
  • 133. Samaje Perine
    RB · KC
    48.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    196.1
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 134. Kendre Miller †
    RB · NO
    72.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    19.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    212.2
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 135. Tommy Tremble
    TE · CAR
    51.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    4.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    166.1
    Chance he plays
    79%
  • 136. Dawson Knox
    TE · BUF
    58.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    5.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    178.6
    Chance he plays
    73%
  • 137. Noah Gray
    TE · KC
    53.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    1.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    167.3
    Chance he plays
    78%
  • 138. Tre Tucker
    WR · LV
    60.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    7.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    184.3
    Chance he plays
    70%
  • 139. Andrei Iosivas
    WR · CIN
    56.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    17.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    185.6
    Chance he plays
    66%
  • 140. Jalen Tolbert
    WR · DAL
    64.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    9.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    193.3
    Chance he plays
    63%
  • 141. AJ Dillon †
    RB · GB
    69.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    215.6
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 142. Daniel Bellinger
    TE · NYG
    50.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    156.5
    Chance he plays
    80%
  • 143. Kylen Granson
    TE · IND
    51.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.2
    Ceiling (P90)
    161.1
    Chance he plays
    76%
  • 144. Rico Dowdle
    RB · DAL
    44.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    189.6
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 145. Greg Dortch
    WR · ARI
    64.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    9.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    192.9
    Chance he plays
    61%
  • 146. Marquise Brown †
    WR · KC
    100.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    21.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    225.5
    Chance he plays
    46%
  • 147. Cedric Tillman
    WR · CLE
    53.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    4.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    181.6
    Chance he plays
    68%
  • 148. Brevin Jordan
    TE · HOU
    43.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    157.0
    Chance he plays
    80%
  • 149. Calvin Austin III
    WR · PIT
    57.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    12.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    185.8
    Chance he plays
    64%
  • 150. Noah Fant
    TE · SEA
    54.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    2.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    158.5
    Chance he plays
    75%
  • 151. Jordan Mason
    RB · SF
    43.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    182.9
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 152. Kalif Raymond
    WR · DET
    73.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    21.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    201.3
    Chance he plays
    53%
  • 153. Keaton Mitchell †
    RB · BAL
    57.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    202.9
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 154. Jake Bobo
    WR · SEA
    57.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    11.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    186.3
    Chance he plays
    62%
  • 155. Jeremy Ruckert
    TE · NYJ
    46.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    14.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    134.3
    Chance he plays
    80%
  • 156. Rashod Bateman
    WR · BAL
    59.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    1.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    181.2
    Chance he plays
    66%
  • 157. Michael Carter †
    RB · ARI
    58.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    5.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    197.9
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 158. Derius Davis
    WR · LAC
    42.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    8.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    169.9
    Chance he plays
    69%
  • 159. Will Mallory †
    TE · IND
    47.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    15.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    135.2
    Chance he plays
    75%
  • 160. Treylon Burks
    WR · TEN
    50.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    2.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    178.2
    Chance he plays
    67%
  • 161. Brandon Johnson †
    WR · DEN
    71.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    17.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    200.6
    Chance he plays
    51%
  • 162. Davis Allen
    TE · LAR
    41.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    8.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    131.6
    Chance he plays
    80%
  • 163. Colby Parkinson
    TE · LAR
    41.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    154.3
    Chance he plays
    77%
  • 164. John Metchie
    WR · HOU
    45.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    1.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    173.0
    Chance he plays
    68%
  • 165. Durham Smythe
    TE · MIA
    50.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    153.6
    Chance he plays
    70%
  • 166. Tyquan Thornton
    WR · NE
    41.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    5.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    168.9
    Chance he plays
    69%
  • 167. Dyami Brown
    WR · WAS
    40.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    169.3
    Chance he plays
    66%
  • 168. Malik Heath
    WR · GB
    42.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    1.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    171.0
    Chance he plays
    67%
  • 169. Tanner Hudson
    TE · CIN
    49.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    156.2
    Chance he plays
    68%
  • 170. Pierre Strong
    RB · CLE
    37.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    176.4
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 171. Demarcus Robinson
    WR · LAR
    64.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    12.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    193.6
    Chance he plays
    53%
  • 172. Connor Heyward
    TE · PIT
    43.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    12.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    130.7
    Chance he plays
    77%
  • 173. Lil'Jordan Humphrey
    WR · DEN
    46.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    7.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    175.0
    Chance he plays
    61%
  • 174. Ronnie Bell
    WR · SF
    38.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    8.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    166.8
    Chance he plays
    66%
  • 175. Josh Oliver
    TE · MIN
    42.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    8.2
    Ceiling (P90)
    131.7
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 176. Elijah Higgins
    TE · ARI
    31.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    143.3
    Chance he plays
    80%
  • 177. Kayshon Boutte
    WR · NE
    30.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    158.8
    Chance he plays
    75%
  • 178. Drew Sample
    TE · CIN
    39.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    8.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    130.4
    Chance he plays
    72%
  • 179. Kyle Juszczyk
    RB · SF
    31.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    171.1
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 180. Cole Turner †
    TE · WAS
    36.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    4.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    124.2
    Chance he plays
    78%
  • 181. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine †
    WR · TEN
    71.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    14.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    200.4
    Chance he plays
    44%
  • 182. Jauan Jennings
    WR · SF
    45.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.2
    Ceiling (P90)
    173.5
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 183. Sean Tucker
    RB · TB
    27.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    167.2
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 184. Tyler Higbee †
    TE · LAR
    69.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    13.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    181.6
    Chance he plays
    46%
  • 185. Josh Whyle
    TE · TEN
    32.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    3.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    123.1
    Chance he plays
    78%
  • 186. Mike Gesicki
    TE · CIN
    35.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    147.6
    Chance he plays
    71%
  • 187. Xavier Hutchinson
    WR · HOU
    32.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    4.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    160.3
    Chance he plays
    68%
  • 188. Foster Moreau
    TE · NO
    37.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    5.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    126.3
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 189. KaVontae Turpin
    WR · DAL
    37.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    16.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    163.4
    Chance he plays
    57%
  • 190. Drew Ogletree
    TE · IND
    32.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    6.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    123.3
    Chance he plays
    76%
  • 191. Adam Trautman
    TE · DEN
    29.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    143.5
    Chance he plays
    73%
  • 192. Trey Sermon
    RB · IND
    30.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    7.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    120.6
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 193. Jalen Brooks
    WR · DAL
    35.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    8.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    138.4
    Chance he plays
    68%
  • 194. Ameer Abdullah
    RB · LV
    31.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    8.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    121.6
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 195. Darnell Washington
    TE · PIT
    29.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    116.9
    Chance he plays
    81%
  • 196. Tyler Goodson
    RB · IND
    25.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    164.4
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 197. Chris Rodriguez †
    RB · WAS
    35.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    174.9
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 198. Ronnie Rivers
    RB · LAR
    30.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    7.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    120.4
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 199. Deven Thompkins †
    WR · TB
    40.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    5.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    169.3
    Chance he plays
    58%
  • 200. Olamide Zaccheaus
    WR · WAS
    30.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    159.6
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 201. Brenton Strange
    TE · JAX
    28.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    1.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    118.8
    Chance he plays
    80%
  • 202. Ty Johnson
    RB · BUF
    18.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    158.0
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 203. Austin Hooper
    TE · NE
    37.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    7.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    123.5
    Chance he plays
    68%
  • 204. Salvon Ahmed †
    RB · MIA
    37.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    176.3
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 205. Alec Ingold
    RB · MIA
    18.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    157.5
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 206. Stone Smartt †
    TE · LAC
    30.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    2.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    120.3
    Chance he plays
    72%
  • 207. Emanuel Wilson
    RB · GB
    29.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    6.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    119.4
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 208. Greg Dulcich
    TE · DEN
    27.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    4.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    101.6
    Chance he plays
    79%
  • 209. John Bates
    TE · WAS
    30.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    2.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    116.2
    Chance he plays
    75%
  • 210. Brock Wright
    TE · DET
    28.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    2.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    118.1
    Chance he plays
    77%
  • 211. Luke Schoonmaker
    TE · DAL
    25.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    3.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    114.4
    Chance he plays
    77%
  • 212. Payne Durham
    TE · TB
    26.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    113.9
    Chance he plays
    80%
  • 213. Scotty Miller
    WR · PIT
    31.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    160.1
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 214. Kendrick Bourne †
    WR · NE
    75.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    5.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    205.1
    Chance he plays
    38%
  • 215. Eric Gray
    RB · NYG
    26.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    3.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    116.5
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 216. Teagan Quitoriano †
    TE · HOU
    27.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    4.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    101.4
    Chance he plays
    78%
  • 217. Mack Hollins
    WR · BUF
    42.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    19.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    145.7
    Chance he plays
    51%
  • 218. Chris Brooks
    RB · GB
    26.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    3.2
    Ceiling (P90)
    116.3
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 219. Julian Hill
    TE · MIA
    23.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    -2.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    111.4
    Chance he plays
    80%
  • 220. Charlie Jones
    WR · CIN
    31.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    6.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    134.8
    Chance he plays
    63%
  • 221. Patrick Ricard
    RB · BAL
    24.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    1.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    114.2
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 222. Braxton Berrios
    WR · MIA
    30.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    157.8
    Chance he plays
    55%
  • 223. Jalen Reagor †
    WR · NE
    41.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    15.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    144.4
    Chance he plays
    53%
  • 224. Charlie Kolar
    TE · BAL
    23.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    112.9
    Chance he plays
    77%
  • 225. Nate Adkins
    TE · DEN
    24.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    2.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    98.2
    Chance he plays
    78%
  • 226. Luke Farrell
    TE · JAX
    24.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    110.4
    Chance he plays
    75%
  • 227. Marquez Valdes-Scantling
    WR · BUF
    35.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    -1.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    163.3
    Chance he plays
    53%
  • 228. J.K. Dobbins
    RB · LAC
    20.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    110.2
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 229. Johnny Mundt
    TE · MIN
    26.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    114.5
    Chance he plays
    68%
  • 230. Van Jefferson
    WR · PIT
    34.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    10.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    137.0
    Chance he plays
    57%
  • 231. Lucas Krull †
    TE · DEN
    22.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    111.8
    Chance he plays
    70%
  • 232. James Mitchell †
    TE · DET
    24.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    2.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    98.1
    Chance he plays
    75%
  • 233. Mo Alie-Cox
    TE · IND
    25.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    3.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    115.2
    Chance he plays
    66%
  • 234. Tyler Johnson
    WR · LAR
    24.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    3.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    128.3
    Chance he plays
    62%
  • 235. Hunter Luepke
    RB · DAL
    20.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    110.7
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 236. Jalen Nailor
    WR · MIN
    23.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    126.8
    Chance he plays
    63%
  • 237. Grant Calcaterra
    TE · PHI
    18.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    92.4
    Chance he plays
    77%
  • 238. Zonovan Knight †
    RB · DET
    26.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    3.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    116.8
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 239. Quintin Morris †
    TE · BUF
    21.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    3.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    96.1
    Chance he plays
    73%
  • 240. Tim Jones †
    WR · JAX
    33.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    9.5
    Ceiling (P90)
    136.9
    Chance he plays
    50%
  • 241. Andrew Beck †
    RB · HOU
    22.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    112.8
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 242. Chris Moore †
    WR · ARI
    55.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    9.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    181.0
    Chance he plays
    30%
  • 243. Pharaoh Brown
    TE · SEA
    21.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    -1.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    108.4
    Chance he plays
    67%
  • 244. Michael Burton
    RB · DEN
    12.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    102.7
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 245. Josiah Deguara
    TE · JAX
    15.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    89.4
    Chance he plays
    73%
  • 246. Craig Reynolds †
    RB · DET
    20.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    109.9
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 247. Simi Fehoko
    WR · LAC
    19.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    2.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    122.3
    Chance he plays
    60%
  • 248. Austin Trammell †
    WR · LAR
    21.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.6
    Ceiling (P90)
    124.7
    Chance he plays
    50%
  • 249. D'Wayne Eskridge
    WR · MIA
    14.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    116.7
    Chance he plays
    58%
  • 250. Adam Prentice
    RB · NO
    10.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    -1.7
    Ceiling (P90)
    100.4
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 251. Jack Stoll
    TE · PHI
    13.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    86.9
    Chance he plays
    75%
  • 252. Ko Kieft †
    TE · TB
    12.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    2.4
    Ceiling (P90)
    86.1
    Chance he plays
    69%
  • 253. Travis Homer
    RB · CHI
    8.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    98.8
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 254. DeeJay Dallas †
    RB · ARI
    16.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    -0.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    106.2
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 255. Devin Duvernay
    WR · JAX
    14.0 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    116.3
    Chance he plays
    60%
  • 256. Velus Jones Jr.
    RB · CHI
    8.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    98.4
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 257. Tylan Wallace †
    WR · BAL
    20.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    123.3
    Chance he plays
    55%
  • 258. Ben Skowronek †
    WR · PIT
    28.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    4.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    131.8
    Chance he plays
    46%
  • 259. Odell Beckham Jr. †
    WR · BAL
    59.5 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    182.3
    Chance he plays
    28%
  • 260. Charlie Woerner
    TE · ATL
    8.4 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    82.0
    Chance he plays
    75%
  • 261. Britain Covey
    WR · PHI
    12.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    114.5
    Chance he plays
    58%
  • 262. Trent Sherfield
    WR · MIN
    12.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    114.4
    Chance he plays
    56%
  • 263. Dare Ogunbowale
    RB · HOU
    2.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    92.2
    Chance he plays
    74%
  • 264. Ian Thomas †
    TE · CAR
    12.1 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    84.7
    Chance he plays
    61%
  • 265. Robert Tonyan †
    TE · MIN
    16.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    89.5
    Chance he plays
    52%
  • 266. David Moore
    WR · CAR
    11.8 median
    Floor (P10)
    -0.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    114.0
    Chance he plays
    54%
  • 267. Kene Nwangwu †
    RB · MIN
    5.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    95.1
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 268. Reggie Gilliam †
    RB · BUF
    2.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    -0.1
    Ceiling (P90)
    92.8
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 269. KhaDarel Hodge †
    WR · ATL
    28.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    5.9
    Ceiling (P90)
    131.5
    Chance he plays
    32%
  • 270. Sterling Shepard
    WR · TB
    9.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    -1.3
    Ceiling (P90)
    110.5
    Chance he plays
    50%
  • 271. D.J. Montgomery †
    WR · IND
    14.2 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    116.8
    Chance he plays
    43%
  • 272. Mike Strachan †
    WR · CAR
    12.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    114.8
    Chance he plays
    46%
  • 273. Jonathan Ward †
    RB · TEN
    3.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    93.5
    Chance he plays
    59%
  • 274. Chris Manhertz †
    TE · NYG
    13.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    87.2
    Chance he plays
    43%
  • 275. Nick Vannett
    TE · TEN
    2.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    72.4
    Chance he plays
    64%
  • 276. Eric Saubert
    TE · SF
    2.7 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    73.2
    Chance he plays
    67%
  • 277. Irvin Charles †
    WR · NYJ
    5.3 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    106.1
    Chance he plays
    45%
  • 278. Gunner Olszewski †
    WR · NYG
    2.6 median
    Floor (P10)
    -1.8
    Ceiling (P90)
    102.6
    Chance he plays
    43%
  • 279. Laquon Treadwell †
    WR · BAL
    3.9 median
    Floor (P10)
    0.0
    Ceiling (P90)
    104.3
    Chance he plays
    37%

Ordered by the expected total — the projection counted against the “Chance he plays” figure beside it. A row can therefore rank above one with a larger “Median”.

About these numbers

RB: Some seasons ahead are not ranked for RB here, because what we have for them doesn't hold up; the seasons offered above are the ones we publish. WR: Some seasons ahead are not ranked for WR here, because what we have for them doesn't hold up; the seasons offered above are the ones we publish. TE: Some seasons ahead are not ranked for TE here, because what we have for them doesn't hold up; the seasons offered above are the ones we publish.

TE: No ranking by the rest of the 2024 season and the 2025–2026 seasons combined is shown. That combined total is tested for only some players at this position, and a ranking that left the rest out would not be a ranking of the position.

RB: Early read: these figures are projected for him individually. His rushing touchdowns, catches and receiving yards were each moved up and widened by as much as we measured full-time starters' seasons have actually landed above our projections for them, and outside their ranges. The range around them moves every stat he is scored on together, the way full-time starters' seasons actually move, and allows for the games he may miss at the rate full-time starters at his position have missed them; the chance he plays at all is the historical rate for players who carried his workload at his age. During the season, his figures are also adjusted for his age, by as much as we have measured full-time starters at his position decline, or improve, with age from one season to the next.

RB: Early read: these figures are projected for him individually. His rushing touchdowns, catches and receiving yards were each moved up and widened by as much as we measured full-time starters' seasons have actually landed above our projections for them, and outside their ranges. The range around them moves every stat he is scored on together, the way full-time starters' seasons actually move, and allows for the games he may miss at the rate full-time starters at his position have missed them; the chance he plays at all is the historical rate for players who carried his workload.

RB: He was not a full-time starter last season. These figures start from his own most recent season and move every stat he is scored on by how much players at his position and age have actually changed over the same span. The range around them moves those stats together, the way real seasons did, reaches down to the seasons where a player's whole workload fell away, and was widened by exactly as much as we measured it had been too narrow, and the chance he plays is the historical rate for players like him.

RB: 14 players here are projected from the 2023 season, marked † below: no game in 2024. The number comes from the model that looks 2 seasons ahead of a 2023 season, to reach the 2025 season. From a 2023 season we publish through 2026 and no further.

RB: Only 22 of the 79 players here were full-time starters last season projected for them individually, and what follows is about them: This range carries a correction we measured. We compared the season-ahead ranges we had published against the seasons that actually followed, found them about 12% too narrow and centered about 8% of a range's width too low, and moved them by exactly what that comparison measured — nothing was widened to make a number look better. The figure above is a prediction from the corrected model.

RB: About this range: we checked ranges like it against the seasons that actually followed, and it held at both levels we test — 81% of real seasons landed inside the 80% range and 90% inside the 90% range, measured on 124 player-seasons. What that testing could not settle, using only the seasons completed by then (through 2023), is whether this projection is more accurate than a simple baseline. We publish it because the range holds, not because it has been shown to beat one.

WR: Early read: these figures are projected for him individually, and the chance he plays is the historical rate for players who carried his workload at his age.

WR: He was not a full-time starter last season. These figures start from his own most recent season and move every stat he is scored on by how much players at his position and age have actually changed over the same span. The range around them moves those stats together, the way real seasons did, and was widened by exactly as much as we measured it had been too narrow, and the chance he plays is the historical rate for players like him at his age.

WR: 18 players here are projected from the 2023 season, marked † below: no game in 2024. The number comes from the model that looks 2 seasons ahead of a 2023 season, to reach the 2025 season. From a 2023 season we publish through 2026 and no further.

WR: Only 38 of the 120 players here were full-time starters last season projected for them individually, and what follows is about them: This range carries a correction we measured. We compared the season-ahead ranges we had published against the seasons that actually followed, found them about 12% too narrow and centered about 8% of a range's width too low, and moved them by exactly what that comparison measured — nothing was widened to make a number look better. The figure above is a prediction from the corrected model.

WR: About this range: we checked ranges like it against the seasons that actually followed, and it held at both levels we test — 84% of real seasons landed inside the 80% range and 93% inside the 90% range, measured on 251 player-seasons. What that testing could not settle, using only the seasons completed by then (through 2023), is whether this projection is more accurate than a simple baseline. We publish it because the range holds, not because it has been shown to beat one.

WR: Only 38 of the 120 players here are projected for them individually, and what follows is about them: What this number leaves out, on purpose: rushing yards and rushing first downs. We tested our rushing yards projection at this horizon against the simplest baseline there is — projecting none at all — over 1,340 past player-seasons. Ours was off by 14.4 rushing yards a season and the baseline by 10.9, so it did not beat the baseline and we publish it as none rather than as a figure we cannot stand behind. For scale, rushing of every kind was 1.7% of what this position actually scored over those same seasons. Nothing else above is affected.

TE: Early read: these figures are projected for him individually, and the chance he plays is the historical rate for players who carried his workload at his age. During the season, his figures for the seasons he will play before 30 are also raised, by as much as we have measured full-time tight ends that age outperform their projections.

TE: Early read: these figures are projected for him individually, and the chance he plays is the historical rate for players who carried his workload at his age.

TE: He was not a full-time starter last season. These figures start from his own most recent season and move every stat he is scored on by how much players at his position and age have actually changed over the same span. The range around them moves those stats together, the way real seasons did, and was widened by exactly as much as we measured it had been too narrow, and the chance he plays is the historical rate for players like him at his age.

TE: 14 players here are projected from the 2023 season, marked † below: no game in 2024. The number comes from the model that looks 2 seasons ahead of a 2023 season, to reach the 2025 season. From a 2023 season we publish through 2026 and no further.

TE: Only 18 of the 80 players here were full-time starters last season projected for them individually, and what follows is about them: This range carries a correction we measured. We compared the season-ahead ranges we had published against the seasons that actually followed, found them about 12% too narrow and centered about 10% of a range's width too low, and moved them by exactly what that comparison measured — nothing was widened to make a number look better. The figure above is a prediction from the corrected model.

TE: About this range: we checked ranges like it against the seasons that actually followed, and it held at both levels we test — 79% of real seasons landed inside the 80% range and 86% inside the 90% range, measured on 95 player-seasons. What that testing could not settle, using only the seasons completed by then (through 2023), is whether this projection is more accurate than a simple baseline. We publish it because the range holds, not because it has been shown to beat one.

What these columns mean

Team
— His club today, from the current roster — not a week's depth chart, because these figures are for the 2025 season rather than for one game.
Median
— The middle of our projected fantasy points for the 2025 season: half of the simulated outcomes come in above it.
Floor (P10)
— The 10th percentile of the same projection: 10% of simulated outcomes come in below it.
Ceiling (P90)
— The 90th percentile: only 10% of simulated outcomes come in above it.
Chance he plays
— The chance he plays at least one game in the 2025 season. The figures to its left are for a season in which he plays at least one game, counting the games he may miss, which is not a promise of his role: on 60 rows here the floor is 0.0, because the range reaches down to seasons where a player's whole workload fell away; where it is a dash, the row carries no such chance and its figures already count the seasons he might not play.
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