Players
2024 Week 5 · Archive

Players — 2024 Week 5

Scoring: Full PPR · 6-pt pass TD

DEF fantasy football rankings for Week 5, 2024: projected points with calibrated floor and ceiling ranges and boom/bust odds, sortable by any column.

Archived example week — 2024 Week 5. These are not current projections. Many of these players are still active, so don't use these numbers to set a lineup. Subscribers get the live week. See plans →

This archived week lists every player we projected that week, whatever his team or status today.

Season-ahead keeper value isn't reliable for defenses — they're best managed week to week.

Weekly projections for DL, LB and DB are not part of this 2024 Week 5 example; choose the rest of the season or a season ahead to rank them.

# Player Pos Mean ↓ Floor Ceiling Boom Bust Profile
DEF1 New England Patriots DEF 9.5 3.3 15.8 — 19% steady
DEF2 Kansas City Chiefs DEF 9.3 3.3 15.6 — 19% steady
DEF3 Denver Broncos DEF 9.1 2.7 15.4 — 20% steady
DEF4 Chicago Bears DEF 9.1 2.5 15.8 — 22% steady
DEF5 Washington Commanders DEF 8.9 2.4 15.6 — 23% steady
DEF6 Minnesota Vikings DEF 8.8 2.8 15.7 — 24% steady
DEF7 Seattle Seahawks DEF 8.7 2.8 14.9 — 23% steady
DEF8 Green Bay Packers DEF 8.3 2.6 14.5 — 25% steady
DEF9 Indianapolis Colts DEF 8.2 1.8 15.1 — 29% swingy
DEF10 Pittsburgh Steelers DEF 8.1 1.7 14.2 — 27% swingy
DEF11 New Orleans Saints DEF 8.0 1.5 14.6 — 30% swingy
DEF12 Buffalo Bills DEF 7.9 2.4 13.4 — 24% steady
DEF13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers DEF 7.7 2.3 13.0 — 26% steady
DEF14 Jacksonville Jaguars DEF 7.6 0.9 14.4 — 30% swingy
DEF15 San Francisco 49ers DEF 7.6 2.0 13.5 — 29% steady
DEF16 New York Giants DEF 7.3 1.3 13.3 — 33% swingy
DEF17 Carolina Panthers DEF 7.1 0.8 13.1 — 33% swingy
DEF18 Miami Dolphins DEF 6.9 -0.2 13.8 — 37% high variance
DEF19 Baltimore Ravens DEF 6.9 0.7 13.0 — 36% swingy
DEF20 Dallas Cowboys DEF 6.4 -1.3 13.8 — 42% high variance
DEF21 New York Jets DEF 6.2 -0.3 13.1 — 41% high variance
DEF22 Las Vegas Raiders DEF 6.1 -0.3 12.5 — 42% high variance
DEF23 Houston Texans DEF 6.1 -0.2 12.4 — 42% high variance
DEF24 Cleveland Browns DEF 5.9 -1.5 13.4 — 46% high variance
DEF25 Cincinnati Bengals DEF 5.7 -1.1 12.7 — 44% high variance
DEF26 Arizona Cardinals DEF 5.7 -0.4 11.9 — 46% high variance
DEF27 Atlanta Falcons DEF 5.6 -0.3 11.8 — 47% high variance
DEF28 Los Angeles Rams DEF 5.4 -1.0 11.3 — 47% high variance
  • 9.5 mean
    Floor
    3.3
    Ceiling
    15.8
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    19%
    Profile
    steady
  • 9.3 mean
    Floor
    3.3
    Ceiling
    15.6
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    19%
    Profile
    steady
  • DEF3 · DEF
    9.1 mean
    Floor
    2.7
    Ceiling
    15.4
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    20%
    Profile
    steady
  • DEF4 · DEF
    9.1 mean
    Floor
    2.5
    Ceiling
    15.8
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    22%
    Profile
    steady
  • 8.9 mean
    Floor
    2.4
    Ceiling
    15.6
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    23%
    Profile
    steady
  • 8.8 mean
    Floor
    2.8
    Ceiling
    15.7
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    24%
    Profile
    steady
  • DEF7 · DEF
    8.7 mean
    Floor
    2.8
    Ceiling
    14.9
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    23%
    Profile
    steady
  • 8.3 mean
    Floor
    2.6
    Ceiling
    14.5
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    25%
    Profile
    steady
  • 8.2 mean
    Floor
    1.8
    Ceiling
    15.1
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    29%
    Profile
    swingy
  • 8.1 mean
    Floor
    1.7
    Ceiling
    14.2
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    27%
    Profile
    swingy
  • 8.0 mean
    Floor
    1.5
    Ceiling
    14.6
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    30%
    Profile
    swingy
  • DEF12 · DEF
    7.9 mean
    Floor
    2.4
    Ceiling
    13.4
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    24%
    Profile
    steady
  • 7.7 mean
    Floor
    2.3
    Ceiling
    13.0
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    26%
    Profile
    steady
  • 7.6 mean
    Floor
    0.9
    Ceiling
    14.4
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    30%
    Profile
    swingy
  • 7.6 mean
    Floor
    2.0
    Ceiling
    13.5
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    29%
    Profile
    steady
  • DEF16 · DEF
    7.3 mean
    Floor
    1.3
    Ceiling
    13.3
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    33%
    Profile
    swingy
  • DEF17 · DEF
    7.1 mean
    Floor
    0.8
    Ceiling
    13.1
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    33%
    Profile
    swingy
  • DEF18 · DEF
    6.9 mean
    Floor
    -0.2
    Ceiling
    13.8
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    37%
    Profile
    high variance
  • DEF19 · DEF
    6.9 mean
    Floor
    0.7
    Ceiling
    13.0
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    36%
    Profile
    swingy
  • DEF20 · DEF
    6.4 mean
    Floor
    -1.3
    Ceiling
    13.8
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    42%
    Profile
    high variance
  • DEF21 · DEF
    6.2 mean
    Floor
    -0.3
    Ceiling
    13.1
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    41%
    Profile
    high variance
  • DEF22 · DEF
    6.1 mean
    Floor
    -0.3
    Ceiling
    12.5
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    42%
    Profile
    high variance
  • DEF23 · DEF
    6.1 mean
    Floor
    -0.2
    Ceiling
    12.4
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    42%
    Profile
    high variance
  • DEF24 · DEF
    5.9 mean
    Floor
    -1.5
    Ceiling
    13.4
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    46%
    Profile
    high variance
  • 5.7 mean
    Floor
    -1.1
    Ceiling
    12.7
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    44%
    Profile
    high variance
  • DEF26 · DEF
    5.7 mean
    Floor
    -0.4
    Ceiling
    11.9
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    46%
    Profile
    high variance
  • DEF27 · DEF
    5.6 mean
    Floor
    -0.3
    Ceiling
    11.8
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    47%
    Profile
    high variance
  • DEF28 · DEF
    5.4 mean
    Floor
    -1.0
    Ceiling
    11.3
    Boom
    —
    Bust
    47%
    Profile
    high variance

Rank shown is position rank (mean desc), independent of the sort you pick.

About these numbers

DET, LAC, PHI and TEN were on bye in 2024 Week 5. A team defense scores only in a game, so those 4 clubs have no row on this board.

Boom is blank on every row of this board. A boom is a week beating 1.5x the typical starter at the position, and we state that bar only where a second, independent source has checked it — QB, RB, WR and TE. Rather than print an upside number we cannot stand behind, we print none. Every other column here is unaffected.

What these columns mean

Mean
— The league-rules-aware fantasy-points mean. It already integrates over playing-time and matchup uncertainty, so it is not a best case.
Floor
— The 10th percentile of this player's projected points: 10% of simulated weeks come in below it. It is the lower edge of the calibrated 80% range.
Ceiling
— The 90th percentile: only 10% of simulated weeks come in above it. It is the upper edge of the same calibrated 80% range.
Boom
— Chance of a week beating 1.5x the typical starter at this position — the median projection among the players at or above replacement level. A bar for the position, never for the player, so two rows here mean the same thing.
Bust
— Chance of a week under two-thirds of the replacement level: under 5.1 points at this position this week. The replacement level is the points of the best player still free once all 12 teams have filled a starting lineup. Two-thirds is the Boom bar's 1.5x read the other way.
Profile
— Spread and nothing else — no claim about upside. The coefficient of variation (standard deviation divided by mean), bucketed: rock solid below 0.45; steady up to 0.60; swingy up to 0.80; high variance at 0.80 and above. “BYE” instead where the player's club had no game that week — a spread is a claim about a week that is played.
  • © 2026 Downfield Forecast LLC
  • About
  • League audit
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Cookies
  • Disclaimer
  • Acceptable Use
  • Consent Preferences
  • Contact