Players — 2024 Week 5

Some seasons ahead are not ranked for QB here, because what we have for them doesn't hold up; the seasons offered above are the ones we publish.

No combined total is shown for the rest of the 2024 season and the 2025–2026 seasons combined. We tested totals like it, built from our projections, against what non-starting quarterbacks actually scored (284 player-weeks at Weeks 4, 8 and 12). At Week 4 its 90% range held for 84% of them, not close enough to 90% to publish. Starters' totals were tested too (166 player-weeks) and did not pass.

No ranking by the rest of the 2024 season and the 2025 season combined is shown. That combined total is tested for only some players at this position, and a ranking that left the rest out would not be a ranking of the position.

Early read: these figures are projected for him individually. The range around them allows for the games he may miss, at the rate starting quarterbacks have actually missed them, and the chance he plays at all is the historical rate for players who carried his workload at his age. During the season, his figures for the seasons he will play past 30 are also lowered, by as much as we have measured starting quarterbacks that age fall short of their projections.

Early read: these figures are projected for him individually. The range around them allows for the games he may miss, at the rate starting quarterbacks have actually missed them, and the chance he plays at all is the historical rate for players who carried his workload at his age.

He was not a full-time starter last season. These figures start from his own most recent season and move every stat he is scored on by how much players at his position and age have actually changed over the same span. The range around them moves those stats together, the way real seasons did, and was widened by exactly as much as we measured it had been too narrow, and the chance he plays is the historical rate for players like him at his age.

14 players here are projected from the 2023 season, marked † below: no game in 2024. The number comes from the model that looks 3 seasons ahead of a 2023 season, to reach the 2026 season. From a 2023 season we publish through 2026 and no further.

About this range: we checked ranges like it against the seasons that actually followed, and it held at both levels we test — 75% of real seasons landed inside the 80% range and 86% inside the 90% range, measured on 116 player-seasons. What that testing could not settle, using only the seasons completed by then (through 2023), is whether this projection is more accurate than a simple baseline. We publish it because the range holds, not because it has been shown to beat one.