Players — 2024 Week 5

Some seasons ahead are not ranked for WR here, because what we have for them doesn't hold up; the seasons offered above are the ones we publish.

Early read: these figures are projected for him individually, and the chance he plays is the historical rate for players who carried his workload at his age.

Early read: these figures are projected for him individually, and the chance he plays is the historical rate for players who carried his workload at his age. During the season, his figures for the seasons he will play past 30 are also lowered, by as much as we have measured full-time receivers that age fall short of their projections.

He was not a full-time starter last season. These figures start from his own most recent season and move every stat he is scored on by how much players at his position and age have actually changed over the same span. The range around them moves those stats together, the way real seasons did, reaches down to the seasons where a player's whole workload fell away, and was widened by exactly as much as we measured it had been too narrow, and the chance he plays is the historical rate for players like him at his age.

17 players here are projected from the 2023 season, marked † below: no game in 2024. The number comes from the model that looks 3 seasons ahead of a 2023 season, to reach the 2026 season. From a 2023 season we publish through 2026 and no further.

Only 38 of the 119 players here were full-time starters last season projected for them individually, and what follows is about them: This range carries a correction we measured. We compared the season-ahead ranges we had published against the seasons that actually followed, found them about 12% too narrow and centered about 8% of a range's width too low, and moved them by exactly what that comparison measured — nothing was widened to make a number look better. The figure above is a prediction from the corrected model.

About this range: we checked ranges like it against the seasons that actually followed, and it held at both levels we test — 78% of real seasons landed inside the 80% range and 91% inside the 90% range, measured on 194 player-seasons. What that testing could not settle, using only the seasons completed by then (through 2023), is whether this projection is more accurate than a simple baseline. We publish it because the range holds, not because it has been shown to beat one.

Only 38 of the 119 players here are projected for them individually, and what follows is about them: What this number leaves out, on purpose: rushing yards and rushing first downs. We tested our rushing yards projection at this horizon against the simplest baseline there is — projecting none at all — over 941 past player-seasons. Ours was off by 13.7 rushing yards a season and the baseline by 10.5, so it did not beat the baseline and we publish it as none rather than as a figure we cannot stand behind. For scale, rushing of every kind was 1.7% of what this position actually scored over those same seasons. Nothing else above is affected.