Players — 2024 Week 5

Scoring: Full PPR · 6-pt pass TD · IDP

DB fantasy football rankings for the 2027 season, ordered by the expected total (the projection counted against the “Chance he plays” figure).

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Today's model, trained only on what was known by 2024 Week 5; some calibration settings were measured on later seasons.

Projected fantasy points for the 2027 season · Directional — lower confidence this far out

#	Player	Team	Median	Floor (P10)	Ceiling (P90)	Chance he plays
1	Antoine Winfield Jr.	TB	292.5	109.0	385.3	83%
2	Kyle Hamilton	BAL	214.6	78.3	309.2	93%
3	Xavier McKinney	GB	209.9	73.3	300.5	87%
4	Jessie Bates III	ATL	249.6	87.3	341.6	74%
5	Camryn Bynum	MIN	218.8	76.9	304.6	82%
6	Daxton Hill	CIN	194.3	63.8	278.7	92%
7	Jaquan Brisker	CHI	193.2	67.8	280.5	86%
8	Josh Metellus	MIN	213.0	76.3	296.6	79%
9	Julian Love	SEA	204.3	66.0	289.2	80%
10	Reed Blankenship	PHI	183.9	61.6	272.1	86%
11	Trent McDuffie	KC	167.4	61.2	254.8	92%
12	Kamren Curl	LAR	178.6	65.4	266.3	86%
13	Devon Witherspoon	SEA	180.5	64.9	271.4	85%
14	Kerby Joseph	DET	167.6	54.9	248.9	92%
15	Tyrique Stevenson	CHI	174.7	59.1	265.6	83%
16	Brian Branch	DET	165.5	49.9	256.4	87%
17	Paulson Adebo	NO	175.7	60.0	266.6	80%
18	Derwin James	LAC	199.2	70.3	284.4	71%
19	Kyle Dugger	NE	198.2	66.9	285.3	68%
20	Jason Pinnock	NYG	158.5	42.9	249.4	80%
21	Julian Blackmon	IND	163.7	48.0	254.6	77%
22	Alontae Taylor	NO	160.7	45.1	251.6	78%
23	Charvarius Ward	SF	191.5	75.9	282.4	64%
24	Taron Johnson	BUF	177.1	57.6	261.7	71%
25	Justin Reid	KC	174.7	55.8	261.5	74%
26	Roger McCreary	TEN	148.7	33.1	239.6	82%
27	Jalen Thompson	ARI	158.7	43.1	249.6	77%
28	Amani Hooker	TEN	149.6	52.5	228.4	81%
29	Tre'von Moehrig	LV	145.7	30.1	236.6	80%
30	Martin Emerson	CLE	140.8	25.2	231.7	84%
31	Nate Hobbs	LV	142.7	27.1	233.6	80%
32	Deommodore Lenoir	SF	137.7	22.1	228.6	81%
33	Tyson Campbell	JAX	129.1	29.7	228.4	83%
34	D.J. Reed	NYJ	149.7	51.9	231.8	73%
35	L'Jarius Sneed	TEN	156.7	41.0	247.6	69%
36	DJ Turner	CIN	123.7	24.3	223.0	85%
37	Percy Butler	WAS	125.7	26.3	225.0	83%
38	Emmanuel Forbes	WAS	120.1	20.7	219.4	85%
39	Benjamin St-Juste	WAS	146.7	31.1	237.6	72%
40	Deonte Banks	NYG	122.7	7.1	213.6	86%
41	Tony Adams	NYJ	130.7	15.1	221.6	79%
42	Patrick Surtain II	DEN	125.7	10.1	216.6	83%
43	Asante Samuel Jr.	LAC	126.7	11.1	217.6	81%
44	Amik Robertson	DET	131.1	31.7	230.4	76%
45	Geno Stone	CIN	128.7	13.1	219.6	80%
46	Grant Delpit	CLE	129.7	14.0	220.6	77%
47	Joey Porter Jr.	PIT	114.1	14.7	213.4	84%
48	Rayshawn Jenkins	SEA	191.7	65.1	279.2	53%
49	Cam Taylor-Britt	CIN	119.5	3.9	210.4	81%
50	Talanoa Hufanga	SF	114.1	14.7	213.4	82%
51	AJ Terrell	ATL	124.7	25.3	224.0	77%
52	Jevon Holland	MIA	117.5	1.8	208.4	83%
53	Jalen Pitre	HOU	119.3	3.7	210.2	80%
54	Alohi Gilman	LAC	131.7	16.0	222.6	72%
55	Brandon Stephens	BAL	130.7	15.1	221.6	74%
56	Kader Kohou	MIA	120.7	5.1	211.6	78%
57	Christian Benford	BUF	110.7	0.0	201.6	84%
58	Quentin Lake	LAR	115.7	16.3	215.0	79%
59	Keisean Nixon	GB	130.7	15.0	221.6	71%
60	Byron Murphy	MIN	124.0	8.4	214.9	74%
61	Michael Carter II	NYJ	113.7	14.3	213.0	79%
62	Greg Newsome II	CLE	108.5	0.0	199.4	83%
63	Brandon Jones	DEN	119.0	19.6	218.3	75%
64	Andre Cisco	JAX	105.7	0.0	196.6	83%
65	Nick Cross	IND	96.3	33.7	227.2	73%
66	Sauce Gardner	NYJ	98.4	0.0	189.2	87%
67	Riq Woolen	SEA	104.7	0.0	195.6	80%
68	Christian Gonzalez	NE	91.3	28.7	222.2	75%
69	Kevin Byard	CHI	167.1	55.6	250.2	50%
70	K'Von Wallace	SEA	119.7	4.1	210.6	72%
71	DeShon Elliott	PIT	121.7	6.0	212.6	70%
72	Jamel Dean	TB	123.7	24.3	223.0	67%
73	Denzel Ward	CLE	115.1	15.7	214.4	70%
74	Antonio Johnson	JAX	92.3	29.7	223.2	73%
75	Derek Stingley Jr.	HOU	94.7	0.0	185.6	86%
76	Tre Brown	SEA	109.9	10.5	209.2	72%
77	Kelee Ringo	PHI	86.3	23.7	217.2	75%
78	Garrett Williams	ARI	92.3	29.7	223.2	72%
79	Kyler Gordon	CHI	97.7	0.0	188.6	82%
80	Isaiah Oliver	NYJ	117.0	17.6	216.3	67%
81	Zyon McCollum	TB	99.4	0.0	190.2	80%
82	Minkah Fitzpatrick	PIT	115.7	16.3	215.0	67%
83	Elijah Molden	LAC	101.5	0.0	192.4	79%
84	Ja'Quan McMillian	DEN	93.7	0.0	184.6	83%
85	Rasul Douglas	BUF	163.5	47.9	254.4	51%
86	Carrington Valentine	GB	106.7	7.3	206.0	73%
87	Cameron Mitchell	CLE	83.9	21.3	214.9	73%
88	Jaylon Jones	IND	98.7	0.0	198.0	75%
89	Christian Izien	TB	88.7	0.0	179.6	83%
90	Marcus Epps	LV	123.7	24.2	223.0	62%
91	Jourdan Lewis	DAL	130.0	30.6	229.3	59%
92	Jaylon Johnson	CHI	92.5	0.0	183.4	80%
93	Deane Leonard	LAC	88.9	26.3	219.8	65%
94	Chidobe Awuzie	TEN	124.7	25.3	224.0	56%
95	Sean Murphy-Bunting	ARI	97.8	0.0	188.7	71%
96	Kei'Trel Clark	ARI	96.7	0.0	196.0	71%
97	Starling Thomas	ARI	105.0	5.6	204.3	66%
98	Elijah Hicks	CHI	86.9	24.3	217.9	64%
99	Julius Brents	IND	105.0	5.6	204.3	66%
100	Quan Martin	WAS	99.1	0.0	198.4	67%
101	Cordale Flott	NYG	89.1	0.0	188.4	73%
102	Jordan Howden	NO	95.7	0.0	195.0	67%
103	P.J. Locke	DEN	93.7	0.0	184.6	69%
104	Isaiah Simmons	NYG	108.8	9.4	208.1	58%
105	Joshua Williams	KC	83.9	21.3	214.9	64%
106	Isaiah Pola-Mao	LV	82.3	19.7	213.2	63%
107	Budda Baker	ARI	104.8	0.0	195.7	61%
108	Jeremy Chinn	WAS	92.9	30.3	223.9	55%
109	Carlton Davis	DET	89.7	0.0	180.6	68%
110	Darnay Holmes	LV	83.3	20.7	214.2	57%
111	Jack Jones	LV	107.9	8.5	207.2	54%
112	C.J. Gardner-Johnson	PHI	88.3	25.7	219.2	54%
113	Dane Belton	NYG	79.0	0.0	178.3	70%
114	Bryan Cook	KC	89.0	0.0	188.3	64%
115	Ji'Ayir Brown	SF	82.1	0.0	181.4	66%
116	Kristian Fulton	LAC	98.7	0.0	198.0	58%
117	Ar'Darius Washington	BAL	68.9	6.3	199.9	64%
118	Donte Jackson	PIT	93.4	0.0	184.2	60%
119	Xavier Woods	CAR	95.7	0.0	186.6	58%
120	Coby Bryant	SEA	70.3	7.7	201.3	61%
121	Theo Jackson	MIN	71.3	8.7	202.2	59%
122	Jaylen Watson	KC	90.7	0.0	190.0	58%
123	Ronnie Hickman	CLE	65.9	0.0	165.2	73%
124	Clark Phillips	ATL	65.7	0.0	165.0	74%
125	AJ Finley	LAC	62.8	0.2	193.8	62%
126	Rodney Thomas II	IND	90.1	0.0	189.4	57%
127	DeAundre Alford	ATL	96.7	0.0	196.0	53%
128	Kaiir Elam	BUF	63.4	0.8	194.3	60%
129	Ja'Sir Taylor	LAC	85.1	0.0	184.4	60%
130	Taylor Rapp	BUF	93.0	0.0	192.3	54%
131	Jakorian Bennett	LV	69.7	0.0	169.0	69%
132	Montaric Brown	JAX	74.7	0.0	174.0	64%
133	Chamarri Conner	KC	66.1	0.0	165.4	68%
134	Mike Hughes	ATL	80.9	18.3	211.9	48%
135	Darrell Baker	TEN	84.7	0.0	184.0	55%
136	Cameron Lewis	BUF	74.9	12.3	205.9	49%
137	Cobie Durant	LAR	82.7	0.0	182.0	55%
138	Jaycee Horn	CAR	67.7	0.0	167.0	65%
139	Jammie Robinson	CAR	57.4	0.0	188.3	59%
140	Ashtyn Davis	NYJ	97.0	0.0	196.3	45%
141	Brandin Echols	NYJ	72.1	9.5	203.0	53%
142	Malik Hooker	DAL	105.0	5.6	204.3	42%
143	Trevon Diggs	DAL	65.3	2.7	196.2	45%
144	Isaac Yiadom	SF	102.0	2.6	201.3	40%
145	Michael Jackson	CAR	78.7	0.0	178.0	47%
146	Avonte Maddox	PHI	69.9	7.3	200.8	42%
147	Jay Ward	MIN	44.4	0.0	175.3	56%
148	Eric Stokes	GB	52.4	0.0	183.3	48%
149	Marcus Jones	NE	51.3	0.0	182.3	46%
150	Samuel Womack	IND	45.4	0.0	176.3	50%
151	Tristin McCollum	PHI	49.4	0.0	180.3	49%
152	Riley Moss	DEN	43.4	0.0	174.3	54%
153	Marlon Humphrey	BAL	71.1	0.0	170.4	43%
154	Nick Scott	CAR	90.1	0.0	189.4	35%
155	Jaylinn Hawkins	NE	61.9	0.0	192.9	39%
156	Daniel Thomas	JAX	41.4	0.0	172.3	44%
157	Damar Hamlin	BUF	42.4	0.0	173.3	42%
158	Jonathan Jones	NE	107.7	8.3	207.0	23%
159	Jalen Ramsey	MIA	74.1	0.0	173.4	31%
160	Ja'Marcus Ingram	BUF	40.4	0.0	171.3	39%
161	Harrison Smith	MIN	140.4	24.7	231.2	18%
162	Elijah Campbell	MIA	60.9	0.0	191.8	26%
163	Eric Murray	HOU	59.3	0.0	190.3	17%
164	George Odum	SF	43.4	0.0	174.3	16%

1. Antoine Winfield Jr.

TB

292.5 median

Floor (P10)

109.0

Ceiling (P90)

385.3

Chance he plays

83%
2. Kyle Hamilton

BAL

214.6 median

Floor (P10)

78.3

Ceiling (P90)

309.2

Chance he plays

93%
3. Xavier McKinney

GB

209.9 median

Floor (P10)

73.3

Ceiling (P90)

300.5

Chance he plays

87%
4. Jessie Bates III

ATL

249.6 median

Floor (P10)

87.3

Ceiling (P90)

341.6

Chance he plays

74%
5. Camryn Bynum

MIN

218.8 median

Floor (P10)

76.9

Ceiling (P90)

304.6

Chance he plays

82%
6. Daxton Hill

CIN

194.3 median

Floor (P10)

63.8

Ceiling (P90)

278.7

Chance he plays

92%
7. Jaquan Brisker

CHI

193.2 median

Floor (P10)

67.8

Ceiling (P90)

280.5

Chance he plays

86%
8. Josh Metellus

MIN

213.0 median

Floor (P10)

76.3

Ceiling (P90)

296.6

Chance he plays

79%
9. Julian Love

SEA

204.3 median

Floor (P10)

66.0

Ceiling (P90)

289.2

Chance he plays

80%
10. Reed Blankenship

PHI

183.9 median

Floor (P10)

61.6

Ceiling (P90)

272.1

Chance he plays

86%
11. Trent McDuffie

KC

167.4 median

Floor (P10)

61.2

Ceiling (P90)

254.8

Chance he plays

92%
12. Kamren Curl

LAR

178.6 median

Floor (P10)

65.4

Ceiling (P90)

266.3

Chance he plays

86%
13. Devon Witherspoon

SEA

180.5 median

Floor (P10)

64.9

Ceiling (P90)

271.4

Chance he plays

85%
14. Kerby Joseph

DET

167.6 median

Floor (P10)

54.9

Ceiling (P90)

248.9

Chance he plays

92%
15. Tyrique Stevenson

CHI

174.7 median

Floor (P10)

59.1

Ceiling (P90)

265.6

Chance he plays

83%
16. Brian Branch

DET

165.5 median

Floor (P10)

49.9

Ceiling (P90)

256.4

Chance he plays

87%
17. Paulson Adebo

NO

175.7 median

Floor (P10)

60.0

Ceiling (P90)

266.6

Chance he plays

80%
18. Derwin James

LAC

199.2 median

Floor (P10)

70.3

Ceiling (P90)

284.4

Chance he plays

71%
19. Kyle Dugger

NE

198.2 median

Floor (P10)

66.9

Ceiling (P90)

285.3

Chance he plays

68%
20. Jason Pinnock

NYG

158.5 median

Floor (P10)

42.9

Ceiling (P90)

249.4

Chance he plays

80%
21. Julian Blackmon

IND

163.7 median

Floor (P10)

48.0

Ceiling (P90)

254.6

Chance he plays

77%
22. Alontae Taylor

NO

160.7 median

Floor (P10)

45.1

Ceiling (P90)

251.6

Chance he plays

78%
23. Charvarius Ward

SF

191.5 median

Floor (P10)

75.9

Ceiling (P90)

282.4

Chance he plays

64%
24. Taron Johnson

BUF

177.1 median

Floor (P10)

57.6

Ceiling (P90)

261.7

Chance he plays

71%
25. Justin Reid

KC

174.7 median

Floor (P10)

55.8

Ceiling (P90)

261.5

Chance he plays

74%
26. Roger McCreary

TEN

148.7 median

Floor (P10)

33.1

Ceiling (P90)

239.6

Chance he plays

82%
27. Jalen Thompson

ARI

158.7 median

Floor (P10)

43.1

Ceiling (P90)

249.6

Chance he plays

77%
28. Amani Hooker

TEN

149.6 median

Floor (P10)

52.5

Ceiling (P90)

228.4

Chance he plays

81%
29. Tre'von Moehrig

LV

145.7 median

Floor (P10)

30.1

Ceiling (P90)

236.6

Chance he plays

80%
30. Martin Emerson

CLE

140.8 median

Floor (P10)

25.2

Ceiling (P90)

231.7

Chance he plays

84%
31. Nate Hobbs

LV

142.7 median

Floor (P10)

27.1

Ceiling (P90)

233.6

Chance he plays

80%
32. Deommodore Lenoir

SF

137.7 median

Floor (P10)

22.1

Ceiling (P90)

228.6

Chance he plays

81%
33. Tyson Campbell

JAX

129.1 median

Floor (P10)

29.7

Ceiling (P90)

228.4

Chance he plays

83%
34. D.J. Reed

NYJ

149.7 median

Floor (P10)

51.9

Ceiling (P90)

231.8

Chance he plays

73%
35. L'Jarius Sneed

TEN

156.7 median

Floor (P10)

41.0

Ceiling (P90)

247.6

Chance he plays

69%
36. DJ Turner

CIN

123.7 median

Floor (P10)

24.3

Ceiling (P90)

223.0

Chance he plays

85%
37. Percy Butler

WAS

125.7 median

Floor (P10)

26.3

Ceiling (P90)

225.0

Chance he plays

83%
38. Emmanuel Forbes

WAS

120.1 median

Floor (P10)

20.7

Ceiling (P90)

219.4

Chance he plays

85%
39. Benjamin St-Juste

WAS

146.7 median

Floor (P10)

31.1

Ceiling (P90)

237.6

Chance he plays

72%
40. Deonte Banks

NYG

122.7 median

Floor (P10)

7.1

Ceiling (P90)

213.6

Chance he plays

86%
41. Tony Adams

NYJ

130.7 median

Floor (P10)

15.1

Ceiling (P90)

221.6

Chance he plays

79%
42. Patrick Surtain II

DEN

125.7 median

Floor (P10)

10.1

Ceiling (P90)

216.6

Chance he plays

83%
43. Asante Samuel Jr.

LAC

126.7 median

Floor (P10)

11.1

Ceiling (P90)

217.6

Chance he plays

81%
44. Amik Robertson

DET

131.1 median

Floor (P10)

31.7

Ceiling (P90)

230.4

Chance he plays

76%
45. Geno Stone

CIN

128.7 median

Floor (P10)

13.1

Ceiling (P90)

219.6

Chance he plays

80%
46. Grant Delpit

CLE

129.7 median

Floor (P10)

14.0

Ceiling (P90)

220.6

Chance he plays

77%
47. Joey Porter Jr.

PIT

114.1 median

Floor (P10)

14.7

Ceiling (P90)

213.4

Chance he plays

84%
48. Rayshawn Jenkins

SEA

191.7 median

Floor (P10)

65.1

Ceiling (P90)

279.2

Chance he plays

53%
49. Cam Taylor-Britt

CIN

119.5 median

Floor (P10)

3.9

Ceiling (P90)

210.4

Chance he plays

81%
50. Talanoa Hufanga

SF

114.1 median

Floor (P10)

14.7

Ceiling (P90)

213.4

Chance he plays

82%
51. AJ Terrell

ATL

124.7 median

Floor (P10)

25.3

Ceiling (P90)

224.0

Chance he plays

77%
52. Jevon Holland

MIA

117.5 median

Floor (P10)

1.8

Ceiling (P90)

208.4

Chance he plays

83%
53. Jalen Pitre

HOU

119.3 median

Floor (P10)

3.7

Ceiling (P90)

210.2

Chance he plays

80%
54. Alohi Gilman

LAC

131.7 median

Floor (P10)

16.0

Ceiling (P90)

222.6

Chance he plays

72%
55. Brandon Stephens

BAL

130.7 median

Floor (P10)

15.1

Ceiling (P90)

221.6

Chance he plays

74%
56. Kader Kohou

MIA

120.7 median

Floor (P10)

5.1

Ceiling (P90)

211.6

Chance he plays

78%
57. Christian Benford

BUF

110.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

201.6

Chance he plays

84%
58. Quentin Lake

LAR

115.7 median

Floor (P10)

16.3

Ceiling (P90)

215.0

Chance he plays

79%
59. Keisean Nixon

GB

130.7 median

Floor (P10)

15.0

Ceiling (P90)

221.6

Chance he plays

71%
60. Byron Murphy

MIN

124.0 median

Floor (P10)

8.4

Ceiling (P90)

214.9

Chance he plays

74%
61. Michael Carter II

NYJ

113.7 median

Floor (P10)

14.3

Ceiling (P90)

213.0

Chance he plays

79%
62. Greg Newsome II

CLE

108.5 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

199.4

Chance he plays

83%
63. Brandon Jones

DEN

119.0 median

Floor (P10)

19.6

Ceiling (P90)

218.3

Chance he plays

75%
64. Andre Cisco

JAX

105.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

196.6

Chance he plays

83%
65. Nick Cross

IND

96.3 median

Floor (P10)

33.7

Ceiling (P90)

227.2

Chance he plays

73%
66. Sauce Gardner

NYJ

98.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

189.2

Chance he plays

87%
67. Riq Woolen

SEA

104.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

195.6

Chance he plays

80%
68. Christian Gonzalez

NE

91.3 median

Floor (P10)

28.7

Ceiling (P90)

222.2

Chance he plays

75%
69. Kevin Byard

CHI

167.1 median

Floor (P10)

55.6

Ceiling (P90)

250.2

Chance he plays

50%
70. K'Von Wallace

SEA

119.7 median

Floor (P10)

4.1

Ceiling (P90)

210.6

Chance he plays

72%
71. DeShon Elliott

PIT

121.7 median

Floor (P10)

6.0

Ceiling (P90)

212.6

Chance he plays

70%
72. Jamel Dean

TB

123.7 median

Floor (P10)

24.3

Ceiling (P90)

223.0

Chance he plays

67%
73. Denzel Ward

CLE

115.1 median

Floor (P10)

15.7

Ceiling (P90)

214.4

Chance he plays

70%
74. Antonio Johnson

JAX

92.3 median

Floor (P10)

29.7

Ceiling (P90)

223.2

Chance he plays

73%
75. Derek Stingley Jr.

HOU

94.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

185.6

Chance he plays

86%
76. Tre Brown

SEA

109.9 median

Floor (P10)

10.5

Ceiling (P90)

209.2

Chance he plays

72%
77. Kelee Ringo

PHI

86.3 median

Floor (P10)

23.7

Ceiling (P90)

217.2

Chance he plays

75%
78. Garrett Williams

ARI

92.3 median

Floor (P10)

29.7

Ceiling (P90)

223.2

Chance he plays

72%
79. Kyler Gordon

CHI

97.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

188.6

Chance he plays

82%
80. Isaiah Oliver

NYJ

117.0 median

Floor (P10)

17.6

Ceiling (P90)

216.3

Chance he plays

67%
81. Zyon McCollum

TB

99.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

190.2

Chance he plays

80%
82. Minkah Fitzpatrick

PIT

115.7 median

Floor (P10)

16.3

Ceiling (P90)

215.0

Chance he plays

67%
83. Elijah Molden

LAC

101.5 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

192.4

Chance he plays

79%
84. Ja'Quan McMillian

DEN

93.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

184.6

Chance he plays

83%
85. Rasul Douglas

BUF

163.5 median

Floor (P10)

47.9

Ceiling (P90)

254.4

Chance he plays

51%
86. Carrington Valentine

GB

106.7 median

Floor (P10)

7.3

Ceiling (P90)

206.0

Chance he plays

73%
87. Cameron Mitchell

CLE

83.9 median

Floor (P10)

21.3

Ceiling (P90)

214.9

Chance he plays

73%
88. Jaylon Jones

IND

98.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

198.0

Chance he plays

75%
89. Christian Izien

TB

88.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

179.6

Chance he plays

83%
90. Marcus Epps

LV

123.7 median

Floor (P10)

24.2

Ceiling (P90)

223.0

Chance he plays

62%
91. Jourdan Lewis

DAL

130.0 median

Floor (P10)

30.6

Ceiling (P90)

229.3

Chance he plays

59%
92. Jaylon Johnson

CHI

92.5 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

183.4

Chance he plays

80%
93. Deane Leonard

LAC

88.9 median

Floor (P10)

26.3

Ceiling (P90)

219.8

Chance he plays

65%
94. Chidobe Awuzie

TEN

124.7 median

Floor (P10)

25.3

Ceiling (P90)

224.0

Chance he plays

56%
95. Sean Murphy-Bunting

ARI

97.8 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

188.7

Chance he plays

71%
96. Kei'Trel Clark

ARI

96.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

196.0

Chance he plays

71%
97. Starling Thomas

ARI

105.0 median

Floor (P10)

5.6

Ceiling (P90)

204.3

Chance he plays

66%
98. Elijah Hicks

CHI

86.9 median

Floor (P10)

24.3

Ceiling (P90)

217.9

Chance he plays

64%
99. Julius Brents

IND

105.0 median

Floor (P10)

5.6

Ceiling (P90)

204.3

Chance he plays

66%
100. Quan Martin

WAS

99.1 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

198.4

Chance he plays

67%
101. Cordale Flott

NYG

89.1 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

188.4

Chance he plays

73%
102. Jordan Howden

NO

95.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

195.0

Chance he plays

67%
103. P.J. Locke

DEN

93.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

184.6

Chance he plays

69%
104. Isaiah Simmons

NYG

108.8 median

Floor (P10)

9.4

Ceiling (P90)

208.1

Chance he plays

58%
105. Joshua Williams

KC

83.9 median

Floor (P10)

21.3

Ceiling (P90)

214.9

Chance he plays

64%
106. Isaiah Pola-Mao

LV

82.3 median

Floor (P10)

19.7

Ceiling (P90)

213.2

Chance he plays

63%
107. Budda Baker

ARI

104.8 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

195.7

Chance he plays

61%
108. Jeremy Chinn

WAS

92.9 median

Floor (P10)

30.3

Ceiling (P90)

223.9

Chance he plays

55%
109. Carlton Davis

DET

89.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

180.6

Chance he plays

68%
110. Darnay Holmes

LV

83.3 median

Floor (P10)

20.7

Ceiling (P90)

214.2

Chance he plays

57%
111. Jack Jones

LV

107.9 median

Floor (P10)

8.5

Ceiling (P90)

207.2

Chance he plays

54%
112. C.J. Gardner-Johnson

PHI

88.3 median

Floor (P10)

25.7

Ceiling (P90)

219.2

Chance he plays

54%
113. Dane Belton

NYG

79.0 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

178.3

Chance he plays

70%
114. Bryan Cook

KC

89.0 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

188.3

Chance he plays

64%
115. Ji'Ayir Brown

SF

82.1 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

181.4

Chance he plays

66%
116. Kristian Fulton

LAC

98.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

198.0

Chance he plays

58%
117. Ar'Darius Washington

BAL

68.9 median

Floor (P10)

6.3

Ceiling (P90)

199.9

Chance he plays

64%
118. Donte Jackson

PIT

93.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

184.2

Chance he plays

60%
119. Xavier Woods

CAR

95.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

186.6

Chance he plays

58%
120. Coby Bryant

SEA

70.3 median

Floor (P10)

7.7

Ceiling (P90)

201.3

Chance he plays

61%
121. Theo Jackson

MIN

71.3 median

Floor (P10)

8.7

Ceiling (P90)

202.2

Chance he plays

59%
122. Jaylen Watson

KC

90.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

190.0

Chance he plays

58%
123. Ronnie Hickman

CLE

65.9 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

165.2

Chance he plays

73%
124. Clark Phillips

ATL

65.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

165.0

Chance he plays

74%
125. AJ Finley

LAC

62.8 median

Floor (P10)

0.2

Ceiling (P90)

193.8

Chance he plays

62%
126. Rodney Thomas II

IND

90.1 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

189.4

Chance he plays

57%
127. DeAundre Alford

ATL

96.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

196.0

Chance he plays

53%
128. Kaiir Elam

BUF

63.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.8

Ceiling (P90)

194.3

Chance he plays

60%
129. Ja'Sir Taylor

LAC

85.1 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

184.4

Chance he plays

60%
130. Taylor Rapp

BUF

93.0 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

192.3

Chance he plays

54%
131. Jakorian Bennett

LV

69.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

169.0

Chance he plays

69%
132. Montaric Brown

JAX

74.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

174.0

Chance he plays

64%
133. Chamarri Conner

KC

66.1 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

165.4

Chance he plays

68%
134. Mike Hughes

ATL

80.9 median

Floor (P10)

18.3

Ceiling (P90)

211.9

Chance he plays

48%
135. Darrell Baker

TEN

84.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

184.0

Chance he plays

55%
136. Cameron Lewis

BUF

74.9 median

Floor (P10)

12.3

Ceiling (P90)

205.9

Chance he plays

49%
137. Cobie Durant

LAR

82.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

182.0

Chance he plays

55%
138. Jaycee Horn

CAR

67.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

167.0

Chance he plays

65%
139. Jammie Robinson

CAR

57.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

188.3

Chance he plays

59%
140. Ashtyn Davis

NYJ

97.0 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

196.3

Chance he plays

45%
141. Brandin Echols

NYJ

72.1 median

Floor (P10)

9.5

Ceiling (P90)

203.0

Chance he plays

53%
142. Malik Hooker

DAL

105.0 median

Floor (P10)

5.6

Ceiling (P90)

204.3

Chance he plays

42%
143. Trevon Diggs

DAL

65.3 median

Floor (P10)

2.7

Ceiling (P90)

196.2

Chance he plays

45%
144. Isaac Yiadom

SF

102.0 median

Floor (P10)

2.6

Ceiling (P90)

201.3

Chance he plays

40%
145. Michael Jackson

CAR

78.7 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

178.0

Chance he plays

47%
146. Avonte Maddox

PHI

69.9 median

Floor (P10)

7.3

Ceiling (P90)

200.8

Chance he plays

42%
147. Jay Ward

MIN

44.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

175.3

Chance he plays

56%
148. Eric Stokes

GB

52.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

183.3

Chance he plays

48%
149. Marcus Jones

NE

51.3 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

182.3

Chance he plays

46%
150. Samuel Womack

IND

45.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

176.3

Chance he plays

50%
151. Tristin McCollum

PHI

49.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

180.3

Chance he plays

49%
152. Riley Moss

DEN

43.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

174.3

Chance he plays

54%
153. Marlon Humphrey

BAL

71.1 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

170.4

Chance he plays

43%
154. Nick Scott

CAR

90.1 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

189.4

Chance he plays

35%
155. Jaylinn Hawkins

NE

61.9 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

192.9

Chance he plays

39%
156. Daniel Thomas

JAX

41.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

172.3

Chance he plays

44%
157. Damar Hamlin

BUF

42.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

173.3

Chance he plays

42%
158. Jonathan Jones

NE

107.7 median

Floor (P10)

8.3

Ceiling (P90)

207.0

Chance he plays

23%
159. Jalen Ramsey

MIA

74.1 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

173.4

Chance he plays

31%
160. Ja'Marcus Ingram

BUF

40.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

171.3

Chance he plays

39%
161. Harrison Smith

MIN

140.4 median

Floor (P10)

24.7

Ceiling (P90)

231.2

Chance he plays

18%
162. Elijah Campbell

MIA

60.9 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

191.8

Chance he plays

26%
163. Eric Murray

HOU

59.3 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

190.3

Chance he plays

17%
164. George Odum

SF

43.4 median

Floor (P10)

0.0

Ceiling (P90)

174.3

Chance he plays

16%

Ordered by the expected total — the projection counted against the “Chance he plays” figure beside it. A row can therefore rank above one with a larger “Median”.

About these numbers

No three-season ranking is shown. Combined three-season totals are tested for only some players at this position, and a ranking that left the rest out would not be a ranking of the position.

No combined total is shown for the rest of the 2024 season and the 2025–2026 seasons combined. We tested totals like it, built from our projections, against what non-starting defensive backs actually scored (5,024 player-weeks at Weeks 4, 8 and 12). At Week 12 its 90% range held for 85% of them, not close enough to 90% to publish. Starters' totals have not been tested.

No ranking by the rest of the 2024 season and the 2025 season combined is shown. That combined total is tested for only some players at this position, and a ranking that left the rest out would not be a ranking of the position.

Points on this board are scored at: defensive touchdown 6, interception 6, sack 6, forced fumble 3, fumble recovery 3, pass defensed 3, solo tackle 2, tackle for loss 2, quarterback hit 1, assisted tackle 1.

This format also scores a blocked kick (3) and a safety (3), which we do not project at all — that leg is missing from these totals rather than counted as zero.

He was a full-time starter last season. These figures are projected from his own most recent season, his workload, his experience and his age, by how players who matched him on those have actually done. The range around them allows for the games he may miss, at the rate starters at his position have actually missed them, moves every stat he is scored on together when he does, and was widened by as much as we measured it had been too narrow, and the chance he plays is the historical rate for players like him at his age.

He was not a full-time starter last season. These figures start from his own most recent season and move every stat he is scored on by how much players at his position and age have actually changed over the same span. The range around them moves those stats together, the way real seasons did, reaches down to the seasons where a player's whole workload fell away, and was widened by exactly as much as we measured it had been too narrow, and the chance he plays is the historical rate for players like him at his age.

This total leaves out quarterback hits, which this scoring format counts at 1 point each: we do not project them past this season yet, because they are only charted from 2021 and no season-ahead projection of them has been checked against what happened. A starting defensive back records a median of 2 quarterback hits a season (2021-2025), about 2 points a season this total does not carry.

What these columns mean

Team: — His club today, from the current roster — not a week's depth chart, because these figures are for the 2027 season rather than for one game.
Median: — The middle of our projected fantasy points for the 2027 season: half of the simulated outcomes come in above it.
Floor (P10): — The 10th percentile of the same projection: 10% of simulated outcomes come in below it.
Ceiling (P90): — The 90th percentile: only 10% of simulated outcomes come in above it.
Chance he plays: — The chance he plays at least one game in the 2027 season. The figures to its left are for a season in which he plays at least one game, counting the games he may miss, which is not a promise of his role: on 59 rows here the floor is 0.0, because the range reaches down to seasons where a player's whole workload fell away; where it is a dash, the row carries no such chance and its figures already count the seasons he might not play.

51 players are listed below without a rank: ranked on this position's 2026 season board, with no projection for the 2027 season published for them.