Showing 2026 Week 1, a week already played.
Each row is the projection that was on the board when that player's game kicked off, beside what
actually happened. The live week is 2026 Week 7.
Players — 2026 Week 1
Scoring: Full PPR · 6-pt pass TD
DEF fantasy football rankings for Week 1, 2026: projected points with calibrated floor and ceiling ranges and boom/bust odds, sortable by any column.
This archived week lists every player we projected that week, whatever his team or status today.
Week 1: 17 of 32 DEF with a recorded result finished inside their 80% range (53%).
This season through Week 1: 17 of 32 (53%).
An 80% range is meant to miss about one time in five, so a week near 80% is on target. Every played week is listed, the bad ones too.
Results as recorded on 2026-10-15 (UTC); an NFL stat correction can still move one.
This is a played week, shown for the record. This week's projections are for subscribers.
This is a played week, shown as it stood at each game's kickoff. Rest-of-season and season-ahead rankings are shown for the live week only: this page cannot yet show them as they stood that week, and today's would be a later ranking under this week's label.
| # | Player | Pos | Mean ↓ | Floor | Ceiling | Result | In range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEF1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | DEF | 10.0 | 5.1 | 15.4 | 13.0 | Landed |
| DEF2 | Los Angeles Chargers | DEF | 9.5 | 4.6 | 15.1 | 1.0 | Missed |
| DEF3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | DEF | 9.1 | 4.2 | 14.7 | 18.0 | Missed |
| DEF4 | Tennessee Titans | DEF | 8.8 | 3.9 | 14.2 | 0.0 | Missed |
| DEF5 | Las Vegas Raiders | DEF | 8.7 | 4.3 | 14.0 | 13.0 | Landed |
| DEF6 | Philadelphia Eagles | DEF | 8.7 | 4.0 | 13.1 | 3.0 | Missed |
| DEF7 | Kansas City Chiefs | DEF | 8.6 | 4.0 | 13.3 | 11.0 | Landed |
| DEF8 | Detroit Lions | DEF | 8.6 | 3.9 | 13.5 | 10.0 | Landed |
| DEF9 | Chicago Bears | DEF | 8.5 | 3.8 | 13.5 | 4.0 | Landed |
| DEF10 | Seattle Seahawks | DEF | 8.4 | 4.4 | 12.8 | 13.0 | Missed |
| DEF11 | Green Bay Packers | DEF | 7.9 | 3.7 | 12.4 | 1.0 | Missed |
| DEF12 | New York Jets | DEF | 7.8 | 3.7 | 12.8 | 7.0 | Landed |
| DEF13 | Buffalo Bills | DEF | 7.8 | 3.7 | 12.1 | 6.0 | Landed |
| DEF14 | Los Angeles Rams | DEF | 7.4 | 3.2 | 11.9 | 2.0 | Missed |
| DEF15 | Dallas Cowboys | DEF | 7.3 | 3.2 | 11.4 | 3.0 | Missed |
| DEF16 | Miami Dolphins | DEF | 7.1 | 3.1 | 11.7 | 4.0 | Landed |
| DEF17 | Denver Broncos | DEF | 7.1 | 3.1 | 11.3 | 3.0 | Missed |
| DEF18 | Cincinnati Bengals | DEF | 7.0 | 2.7 | 11.2 | 18.0 | Missed |
| DEF19 | Baltimore Ravens | DEF | 7.0 | 3.0 | 11.2 | 6.0 | Landed |
| DEF20 | Atlanta Falcons | DEF | 7.0 | 2.6 | 11.4 | 5.0 | Landed |
| DEF21 | Houston Texans | DEF | 6.9 | 2.7 | 11.2 | -2.0 | Missed |
| DEF22 | Minnesota Vikings | DEF | 6.9 | 2.8 | 11.5 | 10.0 | Landed |
| DEF23 | New York Giants | DEF | 6.5 | 2.4 | 10.7 | 3.0 | Landed |
| DEF24 | Carolina Panthers | DEF | 6.5 | 2.9 | 10.4 | 0.0 | Missed |
| DEF25 | New England Patriots | DEF | 6.3 | 2.9 | 10.1 | 6.0 | Landed |
| DEF26 | Cleveland Browns | DEF | 6.3 | 2.5 | 10.1 | 0.0 | Missed |
| DEF27 | San Francisco 49ers | DEF | 6.2 | 2.5 | 10.1 | 8.0 | Landed |
| DEF28 | Washington Commanders | DEF | 6.1 | 2.1 | 10.2 | 3.0 | Landed |
| DEF29 | Indianapolis Colts | DEF | 5.8 | 1.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | Missed |
| DEF30 | New Orleans Saints | DEF | 5.4 | 1.4 | 9.5 | 2.0 | Landed |
| DEF31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DEF | 5.3 | 1.4 | 9.3 | 8.0 | Landed |
| DEF32 | Arizona Cardinals | DEF | 5.0 | 1.2 | 8.7 | 10.0 | Missed |
-
DEF1 · DEF10.0 mean
- Floor
- 5.1
- Ceiling
- 15.4
- Result
- 13.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF2 · DEF9.5 mean
- Floor
- 4.6
- Ceiling
- 15.1
- Result
- 1.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF3 · DEF9.1 mean
- Floor
- 4.2
- Ceiling
- 14.7
- Result
- 18.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF4 · DEF8.8 mean
- Floor
- 3.9
- Ceiling
- 14.2
- Result
- 0.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF5 · DEF8.7 mean
- Floor
- 4.3
- Ceiling
- 14.0
- Result
- 13.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF6 · DEF8.7 mean
- Floor
- 4.0
- Ceiling
- 13.1
- Result
- 3.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF7 · DEF8.6 mean
- Floor
- 4.0
- Ceiling
- 13.3
- Result
- 11.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF8 · DEF8.6 mean
- Floor
- 3.9
- Ceiling
- 13.5
- Result
- 10.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF9 · DEF8.5 mean
- Floor
- 3.8
- Ceiling
- 13.5
- Result
- 4.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF10 · DEF8.4 mean
- Floor
- 4.4
- Ceiling
- 12.8
- Result
- 13.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF11 · DEF7.9 mean
- Floor
- 3.7
- Ceiling
- 12.4
- Result
- 1.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF12 · DEF7.8 mean
- Floor
- 3.7
- Ceiling
- 12.8
- Result
- 7.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF13 · DEF7.8 mean
- Floor
- 3.7
- Ceiling
- 12.1
- Result
- 6.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF14 · DEF7.4 mean
- Floor
- 3.2
- Ceiling
- 11.9
- Result
- 2.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF15 · DEF7.3 mean
- Floor
- 3.2
- Ceiling
- 11.4
- Result
- 3.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF16 · DEF7.1 mean
- Floor
- 3.1
- Ceiling
- 11.7
- Result
- 4.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF17 · DEF7.1 mean
- Floor
- 3.1
- Ceiling
- 11.3
- Result
- 3.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF18 · DEF7.0 mean
- Floor
- 2.7
- Ceiling
- 11.2
- Result
- 18.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF19 · DEF7.0 mean
- Floor
- 3.0
- Ceiling
- 11.2
- Result
- 6.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF20 · DEF7.0 mean
- Floor
- 2.6
- Ceiling
- 11.4
- Result
- 5.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF21 · DEF6.9 mean
- Floor
- 2.7
- Ceiling
- 11.2
- Result
- -2.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF22 · DEF6.9 mean
- Floor
- 2.8
- Ceiling
- 11.5
- Result
- 10.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF23 · DEF6.5 mean
- Floor
- 2.4
- Ceiling
- 10.7
- Result
- 3.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF24 · DEF6.5 mean
- Floor
- 2.9
- Ceiling
- 10.4
- Result
- 0.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF25 · DEF6.3 mean
- Floor
- 2.9
- Ceiling
- 10.1
- Result
- 6.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF26 · DEF6.3 mean
- Floor
- 2.5
- Ceiling
- 10.1
- Result
- 0.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF27 · DEF6.2 mean
- Floor
- 2.5
- Ceiling
- 10.1
- Result
- 8.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF28 · DEF6.1 mean
- Floor
- 2.1
- Ceiling
- 10.2
- Result
- 3.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF29 · DEF5.8 mean
- Floor
- 1.7
- Ceiling
- 10.0
- Result
- 0.0
- In range
- Missed
-
DEF30 · DEF5.4 mean
- Floor
- 1.4
- Ceiling
- 9.5
- Result
- 2.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF31 · DEF5.3 mean
- Floor
- 1.4
- Ceiling
- 9.3
- Result
- 8.0
- In range
- Landed
-
DEF32 · DEF5.0 mean
- Floor
- 1.2
- Ceiling
- 8.7
- Result
- 10.0
- In range
- Missed
Rank shown is position rank (mean desc), independent of the sort you pick.
About these numbers
What these columns mean
- Mean
- — The league-rules-aware fantasy-points mean. It already integrates over playing-time and matchup uncertainty, so it is not a best case.
- Floor
- — The 10th percentile of this player's projected points: 10% of simulated weeks come in below it. It is the lower edge of the calibrated 80% range.
- Ceiling
- — The 90th percentile: only 10% of simulated weeks come in above it. It is the upper edge of the same calibrated 80% range.
- Result
- — the fantasy points he actually scored that week, under the same scoring format as the projection, from his recorded stat line. A dash means no result is recorded for him: he did not play, or his stat line is missing a stat this format scores.
- In range
- — Landed when the result fell inside the printed Floor-to-Ceiling range (the 80% range), Missed when it fell outside. Each row is the projection on the board when his game kicked off, not a later update.